Hairyblue,
Hairyblue avatar

The Messenger/Harris surveyed about 2,000 people online last week, with a margin of error of about 2 percent.

This is a poll of only 2000 people. I really don't see Haley winning against Biden. And I don't see known criminal Trump winning either.

Stop voting for Republicans, they don't believe in American democracy.

TransplantedSconie,

But then I can’t be racist, kill gay and trans people, be a massive asshole to those around me, and hurt the people who need hurting the most! - Christians.

njm1314,

2000 is a perfectly legitimate sample size, the online part is the bigger question there.

AngrilyEatingMuffins,
AngrilyEatingMuffins avatar

2000 people is sufficient for accurate polling.

Caradoc879,

I find it laughable that any woman believes she’d be capable of getting enough of the vote from such a misogynistic base. The vast majority of hard-core evangelicals I know are the kind that leave churches when they get a woman pastor because “a woman shouldn’t tell a man what to do”.

I’m very curious how these people would react if a woman did win the primaries. Would they prefer a woman over a democrat?

Jaysyn,
Jaysyn avatar

Reminder that, nationally, Democrats have been beating the polls by 9+ points at ballot boxes since Roe v. Wade was overturned.

Gen-Z has no interest in taking polls, and pollsters never straight up ask you who you're going to vote for, for a reason.

Hazzia,

I also remember during the dark ages of the Trump presidency, I’d go to news websites and see obnoxious poll banners that said shit like “Do you support PRESIDENT TRUMP or do you believe the LIBERAL MEDIA’S LIES???”

That’s obviously more extreme than what (most) polls nowadays are doing, but if the phrasing has detectable bias then it’s more likely to just make one side less likely to answer the poll at all

Semi-Hemi-Demigod,
Semi-Hemi-Demigod avatar

Those weren't polls. They were fundraisers. Lots and lots of places create biased polls with a fundraising link at the end.

Rapidcreek,

Haley was considered a joke when she was at the UN. It irks me to see her use that as Foreign Relations cred.

Potatofish,

According to a poll, I don’t give a fuk about polls.

BrianTheeBiscuiteer,

Pfft, they’re not going to ask you to participate in that one either.

Telorand,

Even if you did, and the polling methodology was pristine (and it’s not), pollsters have been embarrassingly wrong about the outcomes for the last several cycles. They and their predictive models don’t understand what is driving Millennials and Gen Z to the booths.

The only polls that matter are the official votes. The rest of these are for the politics-in-media circle jerk.

AngrilyEatingMuffins,
AngrilyEatingMuffins avatar

It’s because they still use likely voters, which was what derailed their predictions in 2016. Voting doesn’t work like that anymore. So establishment (old) voters are even more overrepresented.

Idk why yougov’s model hasn’t been more widely adapted.

LEDZeppelin,

And just like that all the media outlets singing Haley’s tunes in unison. It’s magical.

whatupwiththat,

almost like there's someone controlling them

Boddhisatva,

It must be the buckets of money that the Koch foundation.

YoBuckStopsHere,
@YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world avatar

Biden will beat Trump, but he won’t beat Haley.

PeepinGoodArgs,

I think so too. Haley and Biden have very similar corporate audiences, and Haley is better for them than Biden.

MegaUltraChicken,

I think the only way she has a shot is if Trump dies. There’s absolutely no way he drops out at any point and I don’t think there’s a mechanism to remove him from being a candidate before the election. Secretary’s of state are really hesitant about removing him via 14th amendment. He’s going to bring in 20-30 percent of the electorate no matter what.

Telorand,

You’re forgetting the abortion issue, which is a massive voting booster for Democrats who run on the pro-choice platform.

Even if Haley came out and said she supports bodily autonomy, she still has the baggage of being a Republican and a woman, the party historically against female bodily autonomy and women in positions of power. Ultimately, she’d only wind up losing the fundigelicals to Trump, DeSantis, or Vivek.

She doesn’t have a shot, if Biden can lean into expanding abortion access next year.

AngrilyEatingMuffins,
AngrilyEatingMuffins avatar

Biden is anti-abortion, though, so that seems unlikely

Telorand,

I don’t recall him ever trying to legislate anti-choice or making a platform on being anti-choice, though. He even signed an executive order to protect access to reproductive care and called it a “fundamental” right.

I believe that a woman’s right to choose is fundamental, Roe has been the law of the land for almost fifty years, and basic fairness and the stability of our law demand that it not be overturned. —Joe Biden, pre-Dobbs

Whatever his personal views are (he’s a devout Catholic, after all), it’s not like he’s throwing Republicans a bone.

AngrilyEatingMuffins,
AngrilyEatingMuffins avatar

Then you have a short memory

Telorand,

I provided examples to back up my position, but I’m willing to learn. Do you have counter-examples?

AngrilyEatingMuffins,
AngrilyEatingMuffins avatar

His entire career

Telorand,

Okay, but people change. I’d rather take his current actions over his past ones. Most people aren’t archetypes, and he’s given no indication he’s currently going to be against abortion.

AngrilyEatingMuffins,
AngrilyEatingMuffins avatar

what are you talking about? of course he has. he's refused to stack the courts.

one milquetoast letter saying, "I won't interfere directly" and people are pretending his position has changed, somehow.

Telorand,

Refusing to stack the courts isn’t the same as being against abortion (and he’s already appointed lots of judges, so I dunno what you’re on about).

dhork,

If Haley wins the ® nomination, then I predict that Joe Biden will disclose some unfortunate health issue that “just popped up recently”, and will force him out of the race. And then the Democrats will end up nominating… um… shoot, what was her name again?

YoBuckStopsHere,
@YoBuckStopsHere@lemmy.world avatar

Trump will run third party so maybe not. Trump has to go all in to be President to pardon himself for all his felonies.

mriguy,

If Trump doesn’t win the Republican nomination, the Republicans lose. Trump will never accept losing the primary and will run as an independent. Once he peels off all the fascists and epsilon minus semi-morons, there aren’t enough “sane Republicans” left to do anything other than come in third.

I’m cautiously optimistic that after killing so much of his base with covid and pissing off suburban women, even united, the fascists, semi-morons and toadies don’t have enough to win unless their voter suppression efforts are wildly successful (which they might be).

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