Polls show Trump winning key swing states. That’s partly a failure of the press

Polls can’t predict – but they can warn. And I’m not sure our horserace-obsessed media are heeding the warning

One of the things these numbers suggest is that the journalists are not getting the truth across to citizens on some key points (or if they are, that truth is being ignored).

The poll respondents claim that one of their big concerns is the economy. If that’s the case, they should be happy with Biden. Among the factors: low inflation, significant growth and low unemployment. Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate economist, wrote recently: “The economic news in 2023 was almost miraculously good.” (Even the cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner, he notes, was down 4.5% last year.)

If the economy is that strong and that important to voters – and if Biden can take at least some of the credit – why isn’t it coming across? That’s something for the Biden campaign, primarily; but it’s also something for media people since journalists are supposed to be communicating information so that citizens can vote with knowledge. That should be a higher priority than generating profits, ratings and clicks, but one eventually despairs that it ever will be.

Another major voter concern, of course, is Biden’s age. He’s 81; Trump will be 78 in June. They’re both old; both have memory gaps and both exhibit confusion at times.

Only one of them, however, talks about some migrants as “animals” or predicts a “bloodbath” for the country if he loses. Only one is facing dozens of charges related to crimes including trying to overturn a legitimate election. Only one has promised to be a dictator on day one of his presidency and only one has allies that are meticulously plotting a radical revamping of how America works.

Maggoty,

Green line go up became a meme 20 years ago when Bush tried to take a victory lap on low inflation and stock increases.

Stop using indicators that don’t matter to the average American. Those are measurements for economists to look at the top level picture, not for measuring the standard of living for the majority of Americans.

shimdidly,

Glad to see my boy Trump doing so well. Go get em, tiger.

SoleInvictus,

Obvious troll is obvious.

Maybe up your game a little, even Trump isn’t this stupid and lazy.

Mastengwe,

It’s also a failure of people not understanding that polls are garbage.

go_go_gadget, (edited )

It’s also a failure of Biden.

EDIT: Most powerful person on the planet, zero responsibility for his own decisions got it. /s

Mastengwe,

Do you ever take a break from the anti-Biden agenda of yours?

go_go_gadget,

Do you ever take a break from defending a career politician and a shit human being?

Soulg,

Ok so let’s let Trump win instead because that will be so much better

go_go_gadget, (edited )

If you want Biden to win then figure out how to get him to make material compromises with progressives or leftists.

EDIT: Look at all these Trump supporters!!

Mastengwe,

So…. You’re completely fine to hold democracy hostage unless he meets your demands?

This is why people won’t take you seriously.

Count042,

Biden decided that it was more important to commit a genocide then to prevent Trump from likely winning.

It’s not the people unwilling to vote for someone committing genocide that is holding the Presidency hostage.

Israel has doctors amputating Gazan prisoners limbs off because their limbs have died from being zip tied for months on end.

That is what you’re supporting.

Count042,

Out of curiosity, for those downvoting this:

What does the word intersectionality mean to you?

What minority group are you willing to throw into the wood chipper next to prevent Trump from winning?

go_go_gadget,

This is why people won’t take you seriously.

You sure? This is regularly why people take liberal and moderate voters seriously.

Mastengwe,

I’m not defending him. I’m just not suggesting he’s just as bad as his opposition like you claim- and that apparently is the same thing as defending him in the eyes of propagandists.

go_go_gadget,

I’m just not suggesting he’s just as bad as his opposition like you claim

Quote me saying that.

Mastengwe,

Your comment history is FULL of you doing nothing but complaining about Biden. You should be more careful to hide your biases.

go_go_gadget,

Sooooo no quote then huh?

Mastengwe,

Your entire comment history is the quote. Go away. We’re done here. I’m not entertaining trolls.

go_go_gadget,

Awwwww did you make up complete bullshit and get called out? That must suck.

Mastengwe,

That’s not how the real world works. Sorry to have the be the one to tell you, but it’s true.

Let me explain:

You see, people don’t have to answer you to still be correct. Sometimes they might just not want to waste their time knowing you’re just going to troll them more, move goalposts, or use bad-faith rhetoric to continue an already pointless debate. It’s not unlike if you decide to antagonize a teacher by disagreeing with everthing they say-

At the end of the day, you’re still wrong, and the teacher is now exhausted from having to deal with you.

I’ve answered you already. You want an example and I gave you one:

Your entire comment history is an example. Maybe you should read it.

I’m officially done dealing with you. I’m blocking you now as SO many others already have.

go_go_gadget,

I’m just not suggesting he’s just as bad as his opposition like you claim

Quote me saying that.

If my entire history is an example it should be real easy to find a quote. You’re full of shit.

federatingIsTooHard,
@federatingIsTooHard@lemmy.world avatar

You see, people don’t have to answer you to still be correct.

no, but a claim made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence, and any claim made in such a way should be doubted until it is evidenced.

go_go_gadget,

I think you meant to reply to the other guy.

shimdidly,

There is no comparison between Trump and Biden. Not this time. Biden weaponizing the judiciary, DOJ, FBI to attack his political opponent in kangaroo court trials.

Trump says he’s willing to go to jail and “be the next Nelson Mandela” if that’s what it takes to save this country.

I’ll probably get banned for saying this. So be it. Enjoy your echo chamber. That’s why you’re all Blind and Deaf.

Feathercrown,

LOL and he reveals his true self at last. Blocked.

Veneroso,

Can you imagine if Obama did January 6th? You people would burst into flames!

Remember, if Trump is immune, so is Biden, Obama, Clinton, and Hillary! Oh Hilary wasn’t president? You sure about that? Lol.

Mastengwe,

ROFL! Hilarious!

JustZ,

Absolute dumbass.

SoleInvictus,

You’d have to be blind, deaf, and dumb in both senses of the term to believe any of this. Like, bro, you’re on the internet. You can learn all about Trump there, good and bad, and there’s tons of bad, even before his sojourn into politics.

You and all the other MAGAs are getting scammed so hard and the rest of us are just astounded that not only are you falling for it, you’re actively fighting to get scammed some more. It’s like watching a man kick the shit out of himself while screaming about how he’s winning.

flying_sheep,
@flying_sheep@lemmy.ml avatar

Hahaha OK I have to update: this is the most shit take I’ve seen on Lemmy so far.

Truly the dumbest garbage. How did did you manage to register here? After all you have to be able to type your password twice in a row.

assassin_aragorn,

The methodology and sampling of polls needs to be scrutinized. The NYT poll from a while back showing Trump +3-4% was incredibly sus. It had a very large rural presence in the sample, and the poll itself suggested that women were split 50/50 on Trump. Given how races have gone post Dobbs, that feels highly unrealistic.

Polls are only as good as their methodology. Frankly, I think many aren’t representative. We shouldn’t be complacent about things, but I think we are flying blind.

harrys_balzac,

They also call landline numbers - which is why it skews rural and dumbass. Anecdotally, every person I know where I live who has a landline fits many of the Trump/Boomer stereotypes. Their cellphone is their backup number and they don’t give it out because they still believe they are paying for each minute even though they have unlimited voice and text.

carl_dungeon,

I’m starting to feel like if that many people want him, then they fucking deserve him

skeezix,

Came here to say this. A society gets the leaders it deserves.

Mastengwe,

Bullshit. There’s millions of people that don’t deserve him. Blanket observations are ignorant at best- and dangerous at worst.

syllogi,

It's also not even like it's only Americans whose lives will be directly affected by the next election but millions of migrants, Palestinians, Ukrainians and God knows how many more. So talk about the privilege of this comment, not to mention the dismissal of the half the country who doesn't want a return to 2020, to just throw the rest of the world under the bus because some may deserve it.

force,

Yeah it made me pretty pissed when people were saying this same shit after right below 50% of votes were for staying in the EU but Brexit happened anyways. “All the British suck and deserve <negative effect of Brexit that’s occurring> since they voted for it” no stfu, most of the population didn’t even want it

FenrirIII,
@FenrirIII@lemmy.world avatar

And then people suffer needlessly unless they choose violence

ReallyActuallyFrankenstein,

This is a nonsensical statement considering the person who got the most votes even in 2016 was Hillary. If we got the leader we deserved, we never would have gotten Trump.

The problem is that we have a fundamentally undemocratic electoral college system that prioritizes the votes of certain citizens over the votes of other citizens.

Ultragigagigantic,
@Ultragigagigantic@lemmy.world avatar

blaming the victim of a first past the post electoral system? How american of you

ThePyroPython,

Get your guns and your non-perishable food and tradable commodities that don’t require special storage.

And be prepared to hunker down if shit really does hit the fan when he gets back in.

nomous,

Everyone think back to the height of pandemic. The lockdowns, virtual all social functions stopping, talk of “curfews.” Shortages of all kinds of normal items, stores were rationing toilet paper lol.

Imagine that but for years.

I tell people as often as I can, especially my trans and BIPOC friends: Now is the time, get a couple guns (a long one and a short one) and learn how to use them. Learn a little first aid, you just need to know how to stabilize someone. Start networking with like-minded people in your community. The police will not protect us, they’ve shown they’ll happily shoot us in the face with rubber bullets and club senior citizens to the ground. If a caravan of MAGAts visits your neighborhood with bad intentions you’ll find no support from those in power.

Ultragigagigantic,
@Ultragigagigantic@lemmy.world avatar

Work towards peace, prepare for the inevitable.

SocialistRA.org

blargerer,

'polls can't predict' ??? its their chief function.

DancingBear,

The polls for Hillary were within the margin of error

reddig33,

Might be their purpose, but they’re done so shittily these days they can’t be relied on. When was the last time you were polled? Do you have a landline? Do you answer unknown numbers on your cell? Do you go to the mall?

HoustonHenry,

Agreed! IIRC, Boomers are the largest population that still has landlines. Thats just one reason I don’t really pay any attention to polls

Drinvictus,

Biden keeps giving weapons to Israel so they can kill more brown people and these people are like “Gee it’s the fucking press’ fault”. All those uncommitted votes and not one mention of Palestine in the entire article.

dumpsterlid,

The silence is deafening

go_go_gadget,

TBF to the press they did cover the uncommitted votes in the primary. Moderates and liberals just decided they didn’t want to take it seriously. They shrugged and said “They’ll vote for Biden when the time comes.”

EmpathicVagrant,

Is your last line not agreeing that it’s the fault of the press that the issue driving the votes isn’t being talked about?

Drinvictus,

Same thing

EmpathicVagrant,

If that’s the case, you’re saying

People shouldn’t blame the press, because it’s the fault of the press

Drinvictus, (edited )

Did you read the article bro? It’s obvious what I’ve meant. Is English your second language or something?

Edit: fuck it I’ll spell it out. The article is blaming the press for not telling people more about Biden administration’s achievements. But the uncommitted votas have shown that a lot of people are not voting for Biden because of the ongoing genocide. And not one mention of it in the article. So I’m not blaming the press for Biden’s poor performance. I’m calling them delusional to think that it’s because of that. Please read the article next time before commenting.

go_go_gadget,

I mean it has been covered. People just ignore it. I’m still getting accused of being a Russian plant even after thousands of votes were cast for uncommitted. Either those votes were cast by Russians or those people don’t have internet I guess.

ReallyKinda,

Oh good another economist swearing things are good because they’re using 2022 as a reference (@ that dumb thanksgiving anecdote). It baffles me that they’re baffled.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/

givesomefucks,

I learned the hard way to be skeptical about the predictive power of public opinion polls.

I remember election night 2016 all too well, as I hit delete on my partially pre-written Washington Post column and instead tried to look into the future of a Trump presidency. It was a future that wasn’t supposed to happen

Polls weren’t wrong…

It’s just way too many people who call themselves “political experts” only looked at popular vote polls because they’re lazy and don’t know what they’re doing. If they did look at state polls, they had no idea what magin of error means, and people learn that in highschool math without ever taking a stats class.

The 2016 election results were literally in range of predictions for 2016.

Clinton was never a sure thing, but journalists like the one who wrote this article just kept screeching at anyone trying to explain that to them.

Just like this same journalist is still doing 8 years later when people say Biden isn’t popular.

They haven’t learned a fucking thing. And they never will.

DancingBear,

Part of it is that people want to vote for the winner. So by repeating the narrative that there candidate will be the winner encourages others to want to vote for that person….

But the polls of Hillary versus actual outcome were absolutely within the margin of error

givesomefucks,

Nah.

They want blind loyalty to the party, zero criticisms allowed and 100% votes from every party member.

She’s no different than Faux News talking heads telling her viewers to disregard all science and only believe her opinion.

Just because she can’t understand polling doesn’t mean polling is worthless. But I’ve seen far too many people on here claim the same thing lately.

It’s dangerous to give these anti science nutjobs a platform, and statistics is a science no matter how much some people disagree with the results.

DevCat,
@DevCat@lemmy.world avatar

The press has learned that “engagement” is the only way for them to survive. The problem is that they are generating a false narrative to attract more viewers. Basically, it’s become clickbait. They refuse to show all the information because then voters would see it and stop viewing them daily.

givesomefucks,

The press

Bruh. Do you even know who wrote this article?

…wikipedia.org/…/Margaret_Sullivan_(journalist)

Like, she was the public editor of the NY Times during that election…

And this whole article is about how she still doesn’t even know the basics of polling like margin of error.

If you were surprised Hillary lost in 2016, the only journalists you should be mad at is ones like this author who just kept telling everyone Clinton was a sure thing and Trump couldn’t possibly win

Which is the same situation this election with Biden, except his numbers are even worse

blargerer,

Being surprised Clinton lost in 2016 is fine; she was the favourite to win. That's just different from it being a sure thing, which this author doesn't seem to understand.

givesomefucks,

The numbers had her winning a few states by like 2-3%, with 5% margins of error a month out from the election.

If someone was surprised she lost those states after going to California of all states for a victory lap while trump campaigned in those close ones…

Then we should not listen to their advice after telling us they still don’t understand statistics.

This isn’t just some random person, she is a famous journalist with a nationwide platform who seems to think ignorance and zero standards is the best path forward.

The fact that she supports democrats over republicans makes this more concerning, not less.

If the only two options are both like this, it won’t be long till we have no options.

  • All
  • Subscribed
  • Moderated
  • Favorites
  • politics@lemmy.world
  • kavyap
  • thenastyranch
  • ethstaker
  • DreamBathrooms
  • osvaldo12
  • magazineikmin
  • tacticalgear
  • Youngstown
  • everett
  • mdbf
  • slotface
  • ngwrru68w68
  • rosin
  • Durango
  • JUstTest
  • InstantRegret
  • GTA5RPClips
  • tester
  • cubers
  • cisconetworking
  • normalnudes
  • khanakhh
  • modclub
  • anitta
  • Leos
  • megavids
  • provamag3
  • lostlight
  • All magazines