Worldwide wheat stocks to fall as consumption increases

Global wheat consumption is forecast at 804 million tonnes in 2023-24, an increase of nine million tonnes over last year. Meanwhile, production is estimated to have fallen to 787 million tonnes, a seven million tonne decline. That will cause a 17 million tonne decline in world ending stocks.

“This year we expect to see the largest decrease in world ending stocks since 2012,” said Corey Mamchuk, a wheat trader with Cargill who was presenting on behalf of Canada’s exporters.

The gap between supply and demand will be exaggerated this year because of smaller harvests in Canada, Russia and Australia, but it highlights an emerging pattern.

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livus, 6 months ago

From the article:

“The longer-term trend on wheat is that consumption has been growing faster than production,” he told international buyers attending Cereals Canada’s 2023 New Crop Wheat Report webinar.

“Globally, we add about 10 million tonnes of wheat per year, but demand increases by 11 million tonnes per year.”

World wheat-ending stocks are still forecast at a robust 264 million tonnes but stocks among major exporters are estimated at 58 million tonnes, a seven million tonne drop.

Ending stocks are even tighter for durum. They are forecast at 4.9 million tonnes, down 32 percent year-on-year. Stocks among major exporters is forecast at a paltry two million tonnes.

That is due primarily to Canada’s disappointing crop.

Global consumption of the crop is forecast to outstrip demand by 2.4 million tonnes in 2023-24.

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