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frankPodmore

@frankPodmore@slrpnk.net

London-based writer. Often climbing.

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frankPodmore,
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This is probably the single most important difference between the two major parties.

frankPodmore,
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I can’t think of a single example of them opposing anything the tories have done in any substantial way

Would you agree that consistently voting against something and promising to repeal it would constitute a substantial opposition?

frankPodmore,
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If the Tories decide to waste their time debunking a meme, I reckon Labour would be pretty happy with that outcome!

frankPodmore,
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Hilarious to have to issue this clarification.

frankPodmore,
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Another unfunded pledge from the Conservatives. What do we want? Housing! What will we get? Conscription!

David Cameron already did this anyway with the voluntary National Citizen Service. He also promised to eventually make it involuntary but never did, presumably because it was unworkable, expensive or both. So, what has changed to make it workable or inexpensive?

frankPodmore,
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Which is exactly why the army has been asking for more funding, which it actually needs. It doesn’t want conscription, which it recognises would be a waste of resources.

Other countries considering a bad idea doesn’t make it a good idea.

frankPodmore,
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It is a bad idea, which is why nearly everywhere has stopped doing it and hardly anywhere has started again.

frankPodmore,
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And when there’s any chance of us having to fight a defensive land war against Russia, I will admit I was wrong.

frankPodmore,
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Absolute barrel scraping nonsense. And it’s only day three of the campaign!

frankPodmore,
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A handy corrective for anyone who still believes Labour won’t make a difference or are somehow the same as the Tories.

frankPodmore,
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Very lame of me, but I’m really looking forward to the Conservatives losing the next British General Election.

frankPodmore,
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I am actually excited for the Labour programme, though I realise I’m in the minority! The lack of enthusiasm is mainly because people have so little faith things will actually get better and partly because Labour haven’t always been great at communicating why they’ve made (IMO necessary) changes to their policies.

Agree with you about conservatives, but that has always been the problem with conservatism, unfortunately.

frankPodmore, (edited )
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We’re going to get a lot of polls, I’m sure, during the campaign so I just want to give some hot tips for reading the polls to people who haven’t followed a GE that closely before.

  • Changes within 3 points or so aren’t statistically significant on their own. The thing to do is to look for overall trends. If this company does another poll tomorrow showing Labour on 42% or 47%, that really wouldn’t mean anything much.
  • This also means that, if a poll the day of the election looks like this, then any actual election result with Labour between 42% and 48% would mean that hypothetical poll was accurate - or no more inaccurate than expected. Obviously, that is a very wide margin, which should tell you something about the predictive power of individual polls this far out from election day!
  • Don’t look for whatever headline caught your eye lately as the ‘cause’ of the any shift in the polls. Almost nothing makes much of a difference to polling and it’s almost certain that large chunks of the population missed whatever you thought was important. Things like partygate and Trussonomics really did move the dial: it’s stories of that kind of magnitude that have a real impact.
  • A corollary of the above is that almost nothing parties do during election campaigns makes a difference - 2017 was very unusual in that respect. Generally, voters have made their minds up already.
  • You can’t straightforwardly compare polls by different companies. If some other company releases a poll tomorrow with Labour on 41%, that does not mean Labour’s lead has in any sense fallen over that 24-hour period. Again, you need to look at overall trends to have any understanding of what’s going on.
  • Relatedly, always look at the dates of the fieldwork and the dates of the changes (which OP has very rightly posted here). Some companies publish polls more often than others. Sometimes you’ll see a poll with a massive change, but it turns out to be comparing with the last election, while many of the very frequent polling companies are comparing with last week.
  • On a similar note, look at where the polling was done. Polls of, e.g., just London, which some companies do, tend to show massive Labour leads, which people sometimes get very excited about because they wrongly think they’re national polls.
frankPodmore,
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Definitely, it’s a good marker to compare future trends with.

frankPodmore,
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Makes sense since somewhere between two thirds and three quarters of voters think it’s time for a change of government!

frankPodmore, (edited )
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I wish he wouldn’t, but can’t really blame him for trying. He might well win, after all.

EDIT: There’s precedent for this, it turns out! Last time an incumbent, independent former Labour MP in Islington North ran for re-election was in the 1983 GE, when some guy called Jeremy Corbyn won easily for Labour. I don’t think there’s much read-through to the current situation because, firstly, the incumbent in 1983, Michael O’Halloran, obviously didn’t have Corbyn’s national recognition and, secondly, O’Halloran not only had defected (not been expelled), but had effectively defected : from Labour to the SDP, then from the SDP to ‘Independent Labour’ (in reality, just him) when he wasn’t selected to fight the seat for his new party.

frankPodmore,
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Labour have actually selected a local councillor, not someone parachuted in.

frankPodmore, (edited )
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Now, this is an absolutely terrible idea with no redeeming features whatsoever but before we dismiss it just because of it’s total lack of merit, we should also consider that it would be really, really funny.

frankPodmore,
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If you’re already registered for a postal vote at your current address, you should be fine!

frankPodmore, (edited )
@frankPodmore@slrpnk.net avatar

I mean, it should get sent in plenty of time, without you having to do anything! There should be more info on precise timings on gov.uk.

frankPodmore,
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You do. I don’t know why, really. Sounds like the German system is better!

frankPodmore,
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Too late, I’ve already changed it to say VOTE BINFACE.

(I am, of course, kidding.)

frankPodmore,
@frankPodmore@slrpnk.net avatar

Nope, no harm at all. It’s probably worth doing just to make sure they do have your current address down right!

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