Pentagon Chief: Ukraine's Survival in Danger

• At a time when US funding for Ukraine has essentially dried up, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday that Ukraine's survival is at risk. Reuters (a) (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Speaking to reporters after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany, Lloyd said: "Today, Ukraine's survival is in danger and America's security is at risk. I leave here today fully determined to keep US security assistance and ammunition flowing. And that's a matter of survival and sovereignty for Ukraine and it's a matter of honor and security for America." Reuters (a) (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• However, Ukraine did not walk away from the meeting empty-handed. Germany unveiled a new €500M ($545M) military aid package and a number of countries made smaller pledges. POLITICO
• On the frontlines, Russia's advance continues. On Tuesday Russia's Defense Ministry said it captured the town of Horlivka which lies roughly six miles (10 km) west Avdiivka — captured by Russia earlier in the year. Reuters (b) (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Meanwhile, with Ukraine ramping up its use of missile strikes into the Russian border region of Belgorod — Russia said on Tuesday that officials will be evacuating 9K children from the region. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• A day earlier, after securing his fifth term as Russian president, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would be creating a buffer zone to prevent Ukraine's Western-provided weapons from striking the country. Reuters (b) (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• While the situation may feel distant to politicians and spectators in the West, that's not the case for those facing the brunt of Russian attacks. Without ammunition and artillery, Ukraine is being left almost defenseless and it's imperative that this situation is rectified urgently if Ukraine is to stand any chance.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Aside from the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed and Kyiv is now losing the war. More money for arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have fought this war against Russia without US and EU weapons. Now that these weapons are running dry, Ukraine must accept the reality that Russia will never cease its defense of the Donbas or Crimea.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 7% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)