Global trade growth is set to more than double this year as inflation eases and a booming US economy helps to drive activity, according to international bodies.
But protectionist dangers ahead:
The OECD, IMF and WTO have warned about the risks to trade caused by geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts and economic uncertainty, as governments focus on national security, self-reliance and support for domestic companies.
According to the WTO, trade flows between blocs of geopolitically aligned countries have been growing 4 per cent more slowly than trade within those blocs since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Shearing said the US election added to the list of uncertainties about global trade in the coming year. Donald Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican nominee, has pledged to impose a 10 percentage point tariff increase on all the US’s trading partners if he gets re-elected, hinting at even more severe penalties on Chinese imports.
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