It's a fundamental question about society: which is more prevalent, fear or laziness? They had no reason to move until their program stopped working. Now, it's not going to work anymore. But I don't believe we'll see a massive adoption wave. People are still confused about the nature of the Fediverse, and they're too scared by their ignorance to get over it and bite the bullet.
Unfortunately, those that do take the plunge will find that most Fediverse client software is in beta, or less than fully functional. Laziness will keep them away. Fear will push them to other monolithic platforms. So my thought is that it's going to drive traffic to Meta's properties for the time being, at least at this time.
MonsieurHedge
jiji