Labor is taking a six-to-one gamble that money in the pocket is more important than a broken promise

ANU economist Ben Phillips ran the government’s proposed stage 3 tweaks through his PolicyMod simulator to weigh up the winners and losers.

He finds about 6.2 million households will benefit from the Albanese government’s changes, while just 1.1 million households will lose out compared to the tax laws passed under the Coalition.

The government’s gamble is that nearly six-to-one winners to losers presents pretty good odds for the widespread financial benefits to outweigh the cost of a broken promise.

Zagorath,
@Zagorath@aussie.zone avatar

I actually think Labor has played this really cleverly. By changing Stage 3 in the way that they have, they maybe aren’t getting something quite as good as they would have if they’d been in charge of the tax system since 2018, but they’re massively improving it over what the LNP originally legislated. But—and here’s where I think the genius is—they can easily play it off to voters as not reneging on a promise. They didn’t revoke stage 3, they just tweaked it to be a little better. Genius politicking.

UnfortunateDoorHinge,

Agreed. To most people, they’ve improved the cuts so that more people will get a cut. I would’ve got like $400, now I’m getting $1,400 off. I don’t see a problem in the government going “yeah you did want it, but it was pretty shit tbh so we made it better for you.”

Bluetreefrog,

wft. Has the ABC turned into a Murdoch rag or something?

MHLoppy2,
@MHLoppy2@aussie.zone avatar

Did you actually read through the article, or are you just assuming the contents based on the (admittedly mildly clickbait-y) title?

Bluetreefrog,

Guilty. I was reacting to the title and the deluge of wildly biased reporting on ABC radio. The article actually seemed pretty balanced once I read it.

MHLoppy2,
@MHLoppy2@aussie.zone avatar

Yeah the titles from ABC News are generally… not my personal choice these days, but I guess they feel the need to play whatever the title game is.

kablammy,

I feel like ABC headlines have a kind of… “intern-y” flavour these days.

AllNewTypeFace,
@AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space avatar

Or perhaps that the middle-suburban voters who abandoned the conservatives at the last election and whom Labor needs to stick with them don’t think of themselves as temporarily embarrassed millionaires who aren’t looking forward to paying more tax when they do get rich.

hitmyspot,

I thought it was wealthy voters that left and went to independents as they couldn’t stomach the social policies.

AllNewTypeFace,
@AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space avatar

The Teals picking up LNP seats attracted a disproportionate share of media attention, but the bulk of Labor’s landslide was middle-suburban seats who stayed with the Tories since the Howard years largely out of inertia deciding that enough was enough.

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