Manifold Creator Partner Program (news.manifold.markets)
Higher-Order Forecasts (quantifieduncertainty.org)
Why prediction markets aren’t popular (worksinprogress.co)
Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin Back $45M Investment in Polymarket (www.coindesk.com)
There is a also a tweet thread by the PolyMarket CEO.
Mantic Monday 5/13/24 (www.astralcodexten.com)
Government to Ban All US Election Betting (www.maximumtruth.org)
Alert minutes for week #17/2024 on highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 (forecasting.substack.com)
The State of Forecasting: Dynamics, Challenges, Hopes (forecasting.substack.com)
Meet computer scientist and Superforecaster® Elan Pavlov (goodjudgment.com)
Trump or Biden? The Stock Market Doesn’t Care. (www.nytimes.com)
archived
Predictions Scorecard, 2024 January 01 – Rodney Brooks (rodneybrooks.com)
TimeGPT-1: AI-forecaster (arxiv.org)
Timeline of AI forecasts (theaidigest.org)
Simple Predictions Were Wrong: New Research Shatters Old Climate Change Assumptions (scitechdaily.com)
What I learned forecasting Nintendo for a year (www.youtube.com)
Susquehanna (SIG), becomes the 1st institutional market maker to commit to Kalshi (twitter.com)
With ~$2 Trillion in yearly volume, SIG is one of the largest market makers on the planet. They now have a dedicated trading division to trade prediction markets on Kalshi. This is the first time in prediction markets history that a prestigious Wall St institution commits to the asset class....
Predicting Progress: A Pilot of Expected Utility Forecasting in Science Funding (fas.org)
In summary, expected utility forecasting presents a promising approach to improving the rigor of peer review and quantitatively defining the risk-reward profile of science proposals. Our pilot study suggests that this approach can be quite user-friendly for reviewers, despite its apparent complexity. Further study into how best...
Global coal consumption will defy expectations (swiftcentre.substack.com)
Few Sample Statistics and Forecasting GPT-5 (www.metaculus.com)
Who Will Win The Candidates? Tell Us And Win Prizes! #chess (www.chess.com)
How They Do It: Lessons Learned From Our Top Forecasters (www.infer-pub.com)
Q&A with two Pro Forecasters and national security experts (www.infer-pub.com)
Forecast Factors: Drivers of Birth Rates in the Modern World (www.metaculus.com)
Weather forecasts have become much more accurate; we now need to make them available to everyone (ourworldindata.org)
How Not To Predict The Future (asteriskmag.com)
