Same is true for actors becoming movie stars and every other black swan event. For every success there are thousands of nearly-a-success and millions of not-a-success.
I've thought a bit about Jay's methods and, although they won't work for me, there might be different ways to change the odds a little that would.
That said? I haven't found any so far. Did I mention Jay went so far as to make pins with his name on them and get everyone he could to wear them at cons?