Cardinals’ John Mozeliak says crucial weeks ahead will shape trade deadline approach

ARLINGTON, Texas — Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak finds himself in a holding pattern, not out of overconfidence in the team’s roster or stubbornness. Rather, he’s waiting for the team’s play to chart his course forward.

The Cardinals’ performance over the next five weeks will give Mozeliak a North Star and a sense of direction before the MLB trade deadline. Until then, the club’s focus will remain on internal evaluations.

How the current roster performs, including players expected to return from injuries, will determine the options Mozeliak and the front office explore when the trade market takes shape.

“Timing is not in our favor at the moment, but things change over time,” Mozeliak told the Post-Dispatch prior to Wednesday’s game against the Texas Rangers. “So let’s see where we are as a club, then we can determine what we want to try to pursue or not pursue.”

The Cardinals (26-37) return home with the National League’s third-worst record (percentage points ahead of the Washington Nationals and a half game ahead of Colorado) and get set to play three games against NL Central foe the Cincinnati Reds (29-34).

For a club with high expectations for itself as well as a fan base with high expectations, the current predicament has proven aggravating and irksome.

“Everyone is frustrated,” Cardinals veteran starting pitcher Adam Wainwright said after his most recent start. “I don’t know what to say. Fans are frustrated, too, I know. The media is frustrated. We’re frustrated. We’re looking forward to playing consistent baseball.”

In recent weeks, the Cardinals showed signs that they might pull themselves out of the early abyss into which their season plunged. They went 15-13 in May after they entered the month with a 10-19 record and a bevy of uncertainty.

Just when it seemed they might have stabilized, they began June with a five-game losing slide on the road. All five losses came by a combined margin of seven runs, including three consecutive one-run losses.

That’s why Wednesday’s 1-0 victory in Texas was much needed.

“Leaving here with that win was important,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said.

Where will the fixes come from as the Cardinals move forward?

“We’ll see,” Mozeliak said standing in front of the visiting dugout at Globe Life Field. “You’re not going to make wholesale changes in June. Right now, we’ve internally got to figure some stuff out, see where we are at the early part of July, and then decide the direction we want to go.”

He said that the Cardinals’ front office has taken “these types of decisions” down to the trading deadline in the past.

The next 25-30 games will serve as a “pretty good GPS” for the front office. For now, they’re planning to remain “open-minded.”

“You’ve got to look at as also ‘What are your opportunities?’ There might be a decision that appears to be a sell, but might be setting us up for next year,” Mozeliak said. “I don’t know.

“I just think when you hear buy/sell, people look at it in a vacuum or ‘Oh, they’re giving up.’ I’m not saying that at all today. I don’t know what direction we’ll go, but I’m hopeful we’re looking to add and not subtract.”

Assessing the Cardinals’ poor start

When asked about the job Marmol and his coaching staff have done thus far, Mozeliak said, “I know these guys are working tirelessly to get this right. Whenever things aren’t going well, you tend to blame the front office, blame the coaches and, at some level, blame players. I think if we’re all being truthful, we all have a little bit of blame to be shared.”

Through Wednesday’s games, Cardinals starting pitchers rank 18th in WAR (3.7) per fangraphs.com, 20th in ERA (4.66), 16th in FIP (4.41), 25th in strikeouts per nine innings (7.65), 16th in walks per nine innings (3.23), 27th in WHIP (1.52), and 28th in quality start percentage (22%).

“There are times when our rotation has not given us that chance to be in a game or win a game — giving up runs early,” Mozeliak said. “I feel like the overall trend line of our rotation has been positive. So I think that’s encouraging for the rest of the season, but certainly, we’ll be tested.”

The Cardinals went into the season with a projected starting rotation of Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty, and Wainwright.

Mikolas and Flaherty have had their best outings in recent weeks.

Wainwright has made six starts after he started the season on the IL due to an injury sustained while working out with Team USA during the World Baseball Classic.

Matz recently moved to the bullpen, and Matthew Liberatore came up from the minors and stepped in to fill his spot.

Does Mozeliak have any second thoughts about betting on the in-house options this winter instead of making additions?

“I really don’t, but it’s not that I’m doubling down on trying to tell you I’m right,” Mozeliak said. “I think that some of the things that we did not control would be the WBC. Adam Wainwright could’ve gotten hurt in Jupiter, but he didn’t. I think Miles Mikolas basically used the month of April to be his spring training.

“Does that change the total trajectory of our season? No. But I do think it might change the look of how people think about our rotation.”

Right-hander Jake Woodford had been slated to begin the season in the bullpen, but he filled Wainwright’s spot at the start of the season.

Left-hander Zack Thompson began the season in the bullpen, but he went back to the minors in part to get stretched out as a starter to start in the future.

“Obviously having to use Libby right now and not have Matz, that hasn’t gone quite as planned,” Mozeliak said. “Because we thought Matz, coming into the season, would be healthy and perform at a level that we thought would be helpful.

“I also thought somebody like Dakota Hudson might be part of that mix. Of late, he’s throwing the ball better at Memphis. Maybe he is somebody that enters into this conversation in the next few weeks or month.”

Mozeliak was lukewarm in his assessment of the bullpen, which has 13 blown saves this season in 27 save opportunities. Cardinals relievers also tied for the most runners inherited of any staff in the majors. They had the 10th-best rate of stranding inherited runners.

“I think the bullpen, when you really look at high-leverage situations, we really haven’t been great, but yet, the overall performance feels like it has been OK,” Mozeliak said. “I think we’ve got to figure out better ways to mix and match with our bullpen as we think about the remaining part of the season.”

The everyday lineup has featured a lot of moving parts, particularly in the outfield where they’ve used nine different players.

Top prospect and outfielder Jordan Walker began the season in the opening day lineup, but he has already been optioned to the minors and recalled this season.

Outfielders Lars Nootbaar (back), Dylan Carlson (left ankle) and Tyler O’Neill (back) are currently on the IL. Mozeliak was “hopeful” Nootbaar and Carlson could return in the next week and a half. O’Neill isn’t likely to return until around the All-Star break, perhaps after the break.

“I think our everyday club really comes more down to the injury factor,” Mozeliak said. “Obviously, not having Lars for an extended period of time, losing Dylan and Tyler, who we thought were going to be key parts of our outfield. I think that dynamic has changed a lot.

“Obviously, seeing someone like a Nolan Gorman emerge has been great, but I think in the end it has been the injuries have really affected our everyday club.”

Early in the season, Marmol tried to balance outfield playing time for Nootbaar, O’Neill, Walker and Carlson as well as Alec Burleson.

Did the Cardinals give themselves too many outfield options to be effective early?

“I think in hindsight, yes,” Mozeliak said. “Because it didn’t allow a lot of those guys to truly get in a groove. Obviously, when you think back to that time period though, Noot missed time on the IL, so that did free up time for O’Neill, Carlson and Walker to play every day. Then when Noot came back, it got a little noisy again.

“Obviously, when you’re giving people opportunities, your hope is they run with it, and they answer the questions for you. In this particular example, that didn’t happen. Couple that with their own injuries over time, and now, we’re basically entering the middle of June with still question marks about what that outfield is going to look like for the remainder of the year.”