Oh, cool. So it's ok if an enemy rocket is flying through #Poland airspace, as long as it's flying to #Ukraine. "We could have taken the rocket, but we decided not to, cause it was not threatening Poland". I thought the fact that an enemy rocket is flying through your airspace is enough reason to hit it, but no. Poland is ready to let #Russia use it to bomb us. As long as it's not Ukrainian grain coming into Poland — they're fine. #war
@DrGeraintLLannfrancheta@mykhaylo - maybe they didn't want a repeat of the situation when Ukraine tried to shoot down a Russian missile with an S-300 and missed and killed two people in Poland?
I think Polish government until last weekend was doing what it’s best at - just waiting for a problem “to resolve itself” with no action. This is precisely what was their strategy over the last year with the Polish border protests. I’m sure initially Russians somehow assured them “it was a mistake” or something like that.
Now it’s just classic risk management for Polish government:
if they down a Russian rocket over Poland and it just lands in a field - that’s both great message to Russians and Poles, but
if they down it over Poland and it causes some losses, Russians will rejoice “don’t touch our rockets”, “Poles kill their own” etc
if the rocket falls on Belarus or Ukraine and causes some losses, Russians will rejoice “stupid Polish air defence kills Ukrainians/Belarussians” etc
plus there’s the NATO and EU factor, because Polish border is at the same NATO and EU border with Russia
In Poland the general sentiment is that they definitely should down the rockets. But people who live in Warsaw don’t really give a shit about what’s going on in Rzeszów or Białystok. They will blame government if it doesn’t down the rocket, and they will blame it if it downs the rocket.
@kravietz I understand that. Maybe it would be a good idea to down them on approach to the border, just like the guy in the article said. It mitigates the risk for Poland and helps our air defense. Russia won’t do shit about it. There is no “escalation” possible they are already doing their worst.
I can’t, which is why I’m not commenting on it - I have no expertise in this field. But I can bring relevant threads from Polish military experts which are generally considered respected and competent. First two explain reasons why Polish air defence is careful with downing the rockets, the last says they should be downing them:
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