Opportunity window

jersan, 2 months ago

it may very well be one of the last good opportunities to get some GME for cheap.

Either GameStop achieves full-year profitability, or they don’t.

GameStop’s opponents (those hedge funds and other participants holding a short position seeking the stock price to go down), and their useful bought and paid for media puppets, are well aware of the situation we are in, probably even more aware than most GME shareholders.

Full-year profitability is the target. It’s the thing that most shareholders and opponents have their mind on, in terms of material things that matter that could change the narrative, change the dynamic, and ultimately lead towards true price discovery.

If GameStop fails to achieve full year profitability, (e.g. net quarterly earnings for 2023 Q4 to be any amount less than positive ~ $57 million), then this will give the opponents an opportunity to pile on negative sentiment and hit the price down. “After 3 years in control of the company, Ryan Cohen and team fail to achieve widely-expected profitability, stock price down XX %”. As a shareholder I obviously hope that this is not the outcome, but I’ll be happy with any general improvements to the company’s financial standing.

but I think that this is a very achievable target. Net positive $57 million for 2023 Q4 will give full-year profitability for FY 2023. Any number above that is a major success, and completely feasible. Not guaranteed by any means, but realistically achievable.

And if this is achieved, then it shoots a giant hole in the persistent negative media narrative that has been put upon GameStop these past few years by dishonest and manipulative wall street incumbents and their dishonest and manipulative friends in the financial media.

in the scenario of full-year profitability, some positives with respect to an investment in GME:

• Full-year profitability. This would be the first year in 6 years that GameStop would achieve this profitability. The last time was in FY 2017. Undeniable evidence of successful turnaround efforts.
• cash in the bank to the tune of around $1 billion, unless significant amounts are spent on something such as an investment or a merger/acquisition, which would itself likely be positive news.
• no debt* (except perhaps the negligible French loan. it would be nice to be able to say no debt, definitively, without an asterisk. will this loan still be outstanding in any amount?).
• The video gaming industry is a $200 billion per year industry, and growing, larger than movies, music, and books combined.
• GameStop continues to make improvements to their business including for example in e-commerce, internal processes, new ventures

Obviously, not everything is sunshine and rainbows. GameStop still faces headwinds and has many competitors. In the long term, GameStop also needs to dramatically grow top-line revenue if it ever wants to become the giant that many shareholders believe it to be. These are not small accomplishments.

In the short term, in the face of the achievement of full-year profitability, and all the other positives that GameStop has going for it, how can the media sentiment towards GameStop continue to be so negative and cynical? Surely they will try, but it will become increasingly untenable to try and spin negativity about a situation that is very obviously positive. The negative media narrative is there to try and prevent additional investors from ever considering GME as a valid investment. But at some point the truth of the fundamentals become more powerful than the lies of the media. All it will take is some significant buying pressure and the price could break out.

Who knows what will happen.

I hope GameStop reports $57 million or more in net earnings for Q4 2023. We’ll find out in less than 2 weeks.

ryannathans, 2 months ago

Did you make the same post on reddit or is this copypasta