GivingEuropeASpook

@GivingEuropeASpook@hexbear.net

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Who's winning the war in Ukraine?

The media won’t give me great answers to this question and I think this I trust this community more, thus I want to know from you. Also, I have heard reports that Russia was winning the war, if that’s true, did the west miscalculate the situation by allowing diplomacy to take a backseat and allowing Ukraine to a large...

GivingEuropeASpook,

Truly the only trustworthy source

GivingEuropeASpook,

It’s like the trenches of WWI combined with the forever wars the US fought in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Congratulations Russia, you’ve saddled yourself with a decades long conflict potentially and lost the geopolitical purpose of invading Ukraine within months since Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership.

GivingEuropeASpook,

Also Russia is totally cooking the books/cozying up to China as the lesser power in the relationship

GivingEuropeASpook,

He denounced specific parts of the attack. The section of international law that explicitly allows violent resistance to a military occupation or blockade doesn’t exempt the resistors from the rest of international law. The IDF/Israel and Hamas have the same obligations under international law(s).

GivingEuropeASpook,

The terrified inhabitants are still in the Gaza Strip, and I fear for their lives in the face of an impending land invasion of the strip. Hamas fighters are an organized militia and I will judge them and their actions differently than I will unarmed civilians. Stop equating all Palestinians with Hamas - that is exactly what Israel wants.

GivingEuropeASpook,

They’re commenting on a leftist forum, I try to give everyone the benefit of the doubt that that indicates at least a desire to be involved in such things in the real world.

I have had some comments replying to me before, implying that what happened at the rave is what needs to and should happen to all colonists, because clearly I don’t understand what decolonisation means (even though I am someone whose been involved in décolonisation activism in the past and at no point was my forced removal from North America or murder part of the discussion).

GivingEuropeASpook,

Not any worse than implying that every Gazan huddled in dark places praying for their lives under constant Israeli bombardment all support the murder of other people as payback

GivingEuropeASpook,

Lies! I went outside and I saw a poster about CLIMATE CHANGE, and then I turned the corner and heard a family complaining about minimum wage being too low! So unfair, I just want to be ignorant of other people’s suffering.

GivingEuropeASpook,

How many of you are actually happy that people died? I think the memes are funny and I also agree with everything about the US and what it does to people around the world, but my outlook on the world isn’t such that I’m glad when someone “evens the score”.

GivingEuropeASpook,

2023 and we’re still calling things our spirit animals eh?

GivingEuropeASpook,

I don’t know if they’d go through the effort of staging the photo

vkrizis.ru/…/olga-smirnova-prigovorena-k-shesti-g…www.kommersant.ru/doc/6186252

I don’t read russian but I think this is legit? I just copied and pasted her Cyrillic name in Duck Duck Go, so these might still be western propaganda targeted towards Russians like I said I don’t speak or read Russian or know major outlets in Russia.

GivingEuropeASpook,

vkrizis.ru/…/olga-smirnova-prigovorena-k-shesti-g…

If you search her name in Cyrillic you can find Russian sources (.ru domains are managed by Russia, no?)

GivingEuropeASpook,

IDK it might be beneficial to know if it’s ANOTHER one of the 15 intelligence agencies the US operates…

GivingEuropeASpook,

NATO is a defensive pact to protect nations from russian aggression

NATO is a legacy of the Cold War that was aimless until the Russian invasion lol. The Soviet Union even tried to join NATO when it was first talked about and was rebuffed (and you can’t say it’s because “muh democracy,” as Greece, Turkey, and Portugal - a literal fascist state until 1974 - have all been or are authoritarian states at various points in their NATO memberships).

Plenty of geopolitical experts have discussed how financial support of Ukraine is the best investment when it comes to weakening the Russian military.

Plenty also argued from the collapse of the Soviet Union that NATO expansion into eastern Europe would antagonize Russia.

GivingEuropeASpook,

The same federal government that let abortion become illegal across half the country?

GivingEuropeASpook,

I don’t see how you can hold these two positions simultaneously.

They’re about different things. One is an opinion about bottom-up, community activism and the principle of self-determination, and is a belief that exists independently of the material conditions and reality of global politics. France only supported the Americans in order to “get back” at England. They later regretted it when the Americans supported the French Revolution. When I say I support separatism, I am thinking specifically about how Lenin released all of the Russian Empire’s colonial nations, regardless of how it might adversely impact the Soviet states’ security prerogatives.

If part of a country wants to leave, and the government of that country says, “No, and we’ll use force to stop you,” and another country says, “Hey, seperatists, we’ll support you,” then where do you stand on all that?

Like I said with France and the 13 colonies – no country is actually saying that or has ever said that. France didn’t go “yeah, we love what you’re trying to do 13 colonies and support your beliefs wholeheartedly”, they went “oh cool, this will help us regain New France one day and really piss off our archrivals.” Likewise, Russia, having lost Ukraine (and the Eastern Bloc), is trying to regain its lost glory, and it just so happens that they can exploit Donbas separatism in order to do so.

My understanding of the Donbas is that it was largely populated by Russians from the Russian SFSR during the era of open borders within the Soviet States, which also makes things different than Catalans, Kurds, and Scots, for example.

GivingEuropeASpook,

You should check out Telegram and Youtube, you have numerous videos and photos of destroyed Ukrainian armor, drone strikes on radars and artillery, while analysts count everything.

I used to in the first few months of the invasion, but I decided I’d only try to keep up with any significant developments (like if a city changes hands or something new happens, like a particularly brazen drone strike) for the sake of my own mental health.

The brigades were already at most 50% of capacity before the offensive,

Which YouTube sources were saying this?

GivingEuropeASpook,

You changed the goalposts for what “support” means to make it sound like only military equipment counts as support, which is foolish because it isn’t what Russia needs.

I’m pretty sure I mentioned here or elsewhere that financial aid was being given to the Ukrainian government in order to keep their civil service paid. South Korea just approved some of that recently.

Whenever anyone in the West brings up “global support for Ukraine” that’s what they’re mostly talking about, I merely clarified that because people are operating on different definitions of what constitutes “support”. When I consider “support for Ukraine” vs “support for Russia”, I’m comparing money, arms, and diplomatic positions or comments made by a country’s leadership. When I do so, I see:

  • Countries supporting Ukraine with money and/or arms
  • Countries that have condemned the war/invasion and nothing else, maintaining their existing relations with both Ukraine and Russia while also criticizing NATO in some cases
  • Iran + the DPRK, plus maybe Belarus for allowing it’s territory to be used

Russia still has plenty of support all over the world, mostly from countries who rightly recognize this as a struggle against the imperialism of the US and NATO which is beneficial to any anti-imperialists

Out of curiosity, where do you draw the line at reflexively supporting anything the United States opposes? Like, I get that the US successfully re-aligned Ukraine’s foreign policy over the last decade or two, an unequivocal and blatant expansion of US influence and control, and so a successful Russian invasion would result in undoing that American victory, but I fail to see the benefit of Ukraine being in Russia’s sphere of influence for socialists, beyond the fact that Russia isn’t the dominant world power. Is that really it? And if so, how is it beneficial to replace one imperialist domination with another?

Doesn’t it matter that Russia is arguably more of a neoliberal state in line with the domestic social, economic and political agendas of far-right parties in the US, UK, and EU, than many Western countries currently?

GivingEuropeASpook, (edited )

Subbed to both lol

Edit: unsubbed from History Legends after noticing a pattern of “anti-woke” comments from him and his weird view of colonialism (inferring that African countries shouldn’t ask for reparations unless Arab countries are willing to do the same for Spain)

GivingEuropeASpook,

Generally when you’re fighting a civil war…

If this was still like 2018, I’d be out there supporting the various brokered deals that included Russia at the table. Framing the current conflict as a civil war is inaccurate, as it lost the characteristics of a civil conflict when Russia attacked the rest of Ukraine in February 2022. What was a protracted, simmering war between a fraction of the Ukrainian army and Russian-backed Separatists on the fringes of the nation’s territory, with a dynamic akin to plenty of regions around the world throughout the latter half of the 20th century and the start of the 21st.

So if your position is supporting separatist movements except when they receive foreign backing, you’re not going to find yourself supporting many separatist movements in practice, at least in cases where they have to fight.

I wouldn’t say that’s my position. I support separatism, but I also oppose war in most of its forms, since it means the destruction of people’s livelihoods, and heritages, which of course cost many lives in the process too. People here often talk about ending the war in Ukraine as fast as possible because of the violence, so wouldn’t the morally and ethically consistent viewpoint be to support what would prevent war too, not to argue for or justify foreign interventionism? No war but class war, you know?

Within the context of Ukraine, the DNR and LPR didn’t have the relationship with Russia that, going back to the French and American Revolution example, the American colonists had with the French. American separatists didn’t become subordinate to French military leadership or to French foreign policy goals. The newly-independent Americans didn’t then ask to join the French Empire.

As an aside, France’s support for the Americans failed them in their ambitions and led to the collapse of the Ancien Regime, which if we’re to take it as indicative of the outcome and legacy of foreign-backed separatist conflicts, means that this isn’t gonna be good for Russia long term.

GivingEuropeASpook,

While i don’t doubt Russian civilians have gotten hurt or killed, ukraine isn’t targeting city centers or hospitals deliberately the way Russia has.

GivingEuropeASpook,

what if…no you can’t secede and I don’t care how many of you want to?

This is what happens with every seperatist movement pretty much though, and yet i dont see many calls for arms and civil war Cascadia, Scotland, Catalonia these days. The people there know it would mean the destruction of everything they hold dear.

…possible for Russia to offer citizenship and relocation assistance to everyone, but it would mean displacing a lot of people and I’m not sure it’s realistic. Do you have examples of historical precedent in a comperable situation?

I mean, I don’t think there’s any way of getting around displacing people - if it joined Russia I’m sure there are people who’d want to leave for Ukraine, and of course we’re already talking about the reverse.

I can’t think of specific examples but there’s definitely been examples of mass migration or offering of citizenship due to “political solutions” meant to avoid conflict and reduce the spectre of war. Just off the cuff though, I can think of how people of Northern Ireland are able to hold Irish passports, or the numerous migrations that happened in the 20th century when borders were changed or imposes as parts of treaties (the part of Germany that is now Poland, the Muslim/Hindu migrations between Pakistan and India during partitioning, etc)

These aren’t good or something I’m arguing for, but I believe that it was preferable to all out war.

I don’t think you can extrapolate like that from a single data point under pretty different conditions.

Me too, that’s why I said it at the end as an aside, it was more of a glib comment than an actual thesis.

GivingEuropeASpook,

My real issue is that Ukraine won’t negotiate at all, even on Crimea, and I just think that’s unreasonable.

For the same reason that every country tells its own seperatist movements “no”. I believe that Russia should’ve waited things out because its the open state of war that gives Ukraine enough diplomatic cover to push to its pre-2014 borders. Had it done so I think given another decade or two, Ukraine would have to accept reality and cede it formally in exchange for concessions of some sort (again, thinking of historical precedent).

While I’ve been describing and explaining sovereignty as a concept I do believe it presents inherent flaws indicative of its origins with European royals and its having been imposed across the world.

it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of relocation

Of course not, but a war with shifting frontlines (since I was suggesting it as an alternative to invasion) would be inherently more destructive. (Although forced relocation can be committed as a war crime too).

GivingEuropeASpook,

Valid, but cynical arguments make up a lot of foreign policy takes :/. Part of why I speak how I do is because I want to live in a world that one day won’t be ruled by realpolitik and for people to matter when it comes to the foreign policies of nationstates.

I guess it comes down to what happens to the separatists if Ukraine wins, and I’ve seen people say they’d be genocided but I don’t really buy that, seems speculative and like propaganda.

I’m inclined to agree.

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