Ranvier

@Ranvier@sopuli.xyz

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Ranvier, (edited )

Yeah totally. And everyone will feel super satisfied for really sticking it to Biden for not providing enough Palestinian aid or pushing Israel hard enough in their opinion, while only holding back some weapons from Israel, and not doing a pointless veto of congressionally allocated funding that would be immediately over ridden by congress. And then when Trump is elected later this year… Let’s see here…

Oh yeah, withdrawing all aid from Palestine (like he did before), helping Israel to “finish the job” in the Gaza strip, and then strike some corrupt deals with Netanyahu and his son in law to divide up all this sweet recently vacated beach front property. And yes, this is the same son in law he put in charge of Israel Palestine peace “negotiations” during his term.

aljazeera.com/…/trumps-talk-on-gaza-highlights-st…

apnews.com/…/jared-kushner-trump-israel-waterfron…

By all means vote for the most progressive politicians you can. But you have to grapple with the current reality of a first past the post voting system, and not voting at all is even more stupid.

I hate all this accelerationist nonsense. Let’s sit out this election and have an authoritarian facist takeover! Surely this will help push the country to the left like we want.

Ranvier, (edited )

Yeah but it wasn’t just fundamentalist religious zealots. It was also a lot of corporations and capitalists determined to make a profit no matter what, even at the cost of great human suffering and they dragged over a bunch of indentured servants and slaves and oh wait I think this explains a lot about the US.

Watchdog readies crackdown on predatory lending after Supreme Court win (www.washingtonpost.com)

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau plans to restart its aggressive crackdown against payday lenders and other companies that offer high-cost, short-term loans to poor borrowers, after a Supreme Court ruling this week resolved a challenge to the federal agency’s authority to act....

Ranvier,

They are now legal to grow in many states. Unfortunately still not going to find it in a grocery store most likely. I grow my own in the backyard so I can have some at least part of the year. They’re perennial, very easy to grow, and produce a ton of berries. Gooseberries were banned for similar reasons, but are now also legal in many states.

Ranvier,

It’s a little weird, here’s an article that would describe the process of making some if you’re curious:

masterclass.com/…/how-to-make-easy-homemade-jelly…

I prefer jam in general, but a lot of people find this stuff easier to spread on a pb&j sandwich (like softer untoasted bread) or other uses where a thick texture would make jam more difficult to use but they still want the fruit goo (like filling a pastry with maybe). Usually we would use the word jam to mean like a chunkier fruit preserve, and jelly specifically refers to this stuff.

Ranvier, (edited )

Infuriating thing was, this judge was clearly shopped for, but he kicked the case to the DC district Court instead of Texas. He himself even accused the banks of venue shopping in the ruling when he did so! Unfortunately the DC district court sent it right back and said he still had to take the case. He should have recused himself at that pont anyways given his stock holdings and things, but he now decides to reward the the banks for their venue shopping he’s clearly aware of. Judiciary is rotten.

yahoo.com/…/texas-judge-moves-fee-case-232103686.…

Ranvier,

The legal standard for an injunction also includes a “likelihood of success on the merits.” The judge agrees with the banks in his ruling that they are likely to succeed on the case. So unfortunately the injunction is a signal there is a good chance he rules in the banks favor ultimately. Though he spends a bunch of the ruling just talking about how he’s mad this case was kicked back to him. He only spends like a page talking about if the legal standard for injunction has been met or not.

consumerfinancemonitor.com/…/US_DIS_TXND_4_24cv21…

Ranvier, (edited )

Yes I agree, but it doesn’t just have to meet some of those criteria to get an injunction, it has to meet all those criteria, including likelihood of success. They can’t just argue irreparable harm only if the judge thinks they’re unlikely to succeed. The judge seems to agree with them in that section of the ruling that he thinks that the rule is likely unconstitutional. And conservative judges have been pretty hostile to the consumer financial protection bureau in general. I’m not holding my breath, at least not for this judge, but maybe ultimately on appeal the cfpb will still succeed in the end.

Ranvier,

The bill went along party lines out of committee, 11 Democrats in favor 10 Republicans against.

reuters.com/…/senate-panel-set-vote-us-supreme-co…

Dead due on arrival though, due to unanimous republican opposition in both the senate and house (controlled by Republicans). Even if you wanted to argue for Democrats overturning the filibuster or something, it still wouldn’t solve the issue of the house. Anyways the point is, republicans are far more of a problem for judicial reform than your “moderate dems.”

Ranvier, (edited )

There’s about 100,000 flights a day in the world. Until very recently Boeing was the largest provider of commercial aircraft, and it’s still second largest next to airbus. It’s basically a duopoly with those two manufacturers providing the vast majority of planes. Even with the small rate of accidents, with so many flights every day involving Boeing planes there’s going to be a few.

Editors know anything relating to an airline accident and Boeing right now will get lots of clicks, they just throw that it’s a Boeing aircraft in the headline, then bury relevant facts indicating there’s really no way this could have anything to do with Boeing quality control in the article. And many of these are about events that happen from time to time anyways but wouldn’t normally make any sort of splash in the international news media, so suddenly it feels like you’re being bombarded with Boeing news. If the headline writer put GE or Rolls Royce airplane engine fire due to likely accidental bird collision, or Garuda Indonesia airline repair standards are subpar or something, it wouldn’t get any clicks.

Ranvier, (edited )

People really need to take these polls seriously, and some misunderstanding of the win probabilities really contributed to everyone’s shock in 2016 and I think their disbelief in current polls.

A 70% chance based on the summation of multiple polls per five thirty eight was Hillary’s chance of winning. Considering the end result was an extremely slim electoral college victory only for Trump, that’s pretty reasonable. I think the problem here is just a misunderstanding of 70% probability, a lot of people thought that implies something way more sure than it actually does. That’s just a slight favoring of Clinton, closer to a 50/50 chance than a sure thing. A 30% chance is like saying, I’m going to get at least three heads when flipping a coin four times. Or pretty close to getting a pair on the flop in poker. It’s really not that unlikely, happens all the time.

It was the NY times upshot trying to copy five thirty eight that had some really bizarre math creating numbers way up in the high 90s of percent that clearly couldn’t be right and especially didn’t help with the false confidence.

It also doesn’t help that those win probabilities often get mentioned in the same breath as polling numbers. 70% in a poll is an insane advantage that would translate to a basically 100% win probability, while a 70% win probability is just a slight edge. I think some people that see those numbers close together can’t help but unconsciously conflate them.

Another important thing to consider is when polling errors happen, they tend to be correlated with each other, not independent. And it just so happened that the polls across multiple upper Midwest states were consistently underestimating Trump’s support. Not to mention a bunch of last minute news events that took place after many of the last polls that could have moved them.

Anyways, it still would be much better to be up in battleground polls than down. We shouldn’t be complacent when there’s in actuality only a slight advantage, and we definitely shouldn’t be complacent when we’re down. These numbers should be a cause for major concern.

Ranvier,

Lol, when this first came out I joked about them skipping ammendments they didn’t like. I wasn’t actually expecting them to do it. I mean no one who buys this is going to be spending any time reading the thing.

Ranvier,

Do they not use the word country as a synonym for rural? I checked the Cambridge dictionary, it’s their second definition listed, even higher than where that definition is listed in Merriam Webster. It’s like complaining rock music is made with guitars instead of boulders. Does he also think that country is like the only genre of music made in America? Though some country singers do like to put a lot of nationalism in their music which does kind of confuse things.

I’m a firm mayo by itself as a sauce hater though so I’m with him there. Even more abominable are the jello (or jelly for those in the UK) “salads.” It’s not a salad!

Ranvier, (edited )

This probably won’t affect beef prices. Rare isolated cases of prion disease in cows happen and can develop spontaneously. The epidemic resulted when the remains of cows/sheep with it were fed to other cows allowing it to propogate.

The surveillance systems that are used to make sure cases don’t get into the human food supply though do cost something and contribute some to beef prices, but those systems are always going on, so no change.

Bird flu on the other hand is super contagious and spreads like wildfire, especially in factory farming conditions, resulting in the need for culls of large amounts of birds, that can very quickly affect prices.

Ranvier, (edited )

What I mean is even now these sporadic cases happen every once in a rare while and always will as long as beef is farmed. It is impossible for cases to go to 0 anywhere because very rarely a cow can spontaneously develop prions. Like the last case in the UK detected two years ago didn’t result in massive culls and restrictions and things. A prion case in a cow was found in the US just last year as another example.

The 90s were a bit different because it was very widespread due to feeding of animals to other animals, and it was hard to track exactly how far it would have got. Same for humans, most human prion disease is extremely rare and sporadic, but if humans start consuming each other it can become common. In humans the sporadic form is called CJD (creutzfeld jakub disease), the kind believed to be transmitted by cows is called variant CJD, and there was a kind that developed due to a funerary cannabilism practice in a certain tribe in papau new Guinea called Kuru. Because of the cannibalism practices it was able to become very common, similar to what happened in cows when they were fed waste products from other cows.

Ranvier,

Not exactly. In the cases you’re referring to Biden wasn’t bypassing congress to give tax dollars to Israel (presidents can’t just allocate money willy nilly, congress does that). He bypassed them to approve a sale of weapons to Isreal (Israel spending their money to buy American arms). Usually arms sales also get submitted to congress so they can review them beforehand but currently the president can bypass that. And yeah it’s doubtful congress would have stopped it, they would have needed to pass a law restricting the sale to do so.

What the current article is describing is US tax dollars going to Israel, since congress has now allocated funding to buy Israel weapons. It also mentions some republican lawmakers are still so enraged the large bombs are being held back, that they’re attempting to create laws to prevent him from withholding any further weapons in the future. Unlikely to pass with democratic control of the senate though, and Biden has said he would veto it if it did.

Ranvier,

No it’s pretty lengthy. Washington post does require a subscription which may be why you’re not seeing it.

Here’s an archived version though:

archive.is/B8yAE

Ranvier,

The spectrum of human thought is astounding some times.

On the one hand you have people adamant that viruses don’t even exist against all rational thought, reason, the almost daily experience of their existence, and over a hundred years of scientific research around the world learning more about them in detail and cataloguing at least 15,000 distinct species.

While simultaneously you have people who know so much that they can manipulate viruses into becoming our own little machines to deliver working copies of genes straight into particular types of cells in someone’s body and treat their deadly genetic illness with gene therapy.

Ranvier,

We have made H5N1 avian flu vaccines many times before. We have one developed as recently as 2020 that’s been approved by the FDA for use in humans, not sure how great it is against the current incarnation though. Flu is quite good at evading vaccines, hence the need for frequent updates.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1_vaccine

The US government funds vaccine development for viruses that might become a problem at some point. There’s also work into expanding rna vaccine technology, which can allow for very quick updates as viruses change. We need way more work and funding on pandemic prep and surveillance. We’ve all seen how devestating a global pandemic can be. Even if the vast majority developed never end up needing use, one of them may save millions of lives.

scientificamerican.com/…/vaccine-makers-are-prepa…

Anyways, if an H5N1 pandemic started tomorrow, there’s a vaccine that would probably be helpful already made. Would need to be scaled up massively in production of course though.

Ranvier, (edited )

That’s because abortions and the procedures used for them are a necessary part of obstetrics care that every obstetrician needs to know to be competent in their field. Doctors don’t want to be in states where they can’t give the care that patients need, being forced to watch as they suffer knowing they could have been able to do something about it if not for the laws. And they especially don’t want to train in states where they won’t get exposure and training in all of their field. Many obgyn programs are now having to scramble and try to do things like add out of state rotations so that their trainees can still get some experience. Doctors especially don’t want to worry about being thrown in jail because ill informed prosecutors and members of the general public decided that a pregnant person wasn’t critically ill enough to get their life saving abortion yet or some other nonsense.

There are more women going into medicine now then men. They understand how critically important access to abortion is, and that they may need one, potentially to protect their health or their ability to have more pregnancies in the future, even if it was a planned pregnancy they had every intention of carrying to term. And men of course have female loved ones they care about and want to have access to proper medical care as well. And every specialty has female patients that they want to have the best care in any eventuality.

Unfortunately abortion opponents have pushed many different fantasies about pregnancy and obstetrics, I think usually out of ignorance. But doctors are well educated on these matters. You’ll continue to see an exodus of trained medical professionals from these states, not just in obgyn but across all of medicine. And I think across all of medicine they see the writing on the wall, that republican states are determined to get more and more invasive in getting between patients and their doctors. I doubt it would stop at just banning abortions and transgender care if Republicans have their way, and people are already suffering across the country because of it.

Even if you can’t get pregnant and somehow don’t know or care about anyone that can, you’re going to have worse access to health care and suffer as an indirect result of abortion restrictions too.

npr.org/…/abortion-bans-drive-off-doctors-and-put…

An early indication of that impending medical “brain drain” came in February, when 76% of respondents in a survey of more than 2,000 current and future physicians say they would not even apply to work or train in states with abortion restrictions.

theguardian.com/…/us-abortion-ban-providers-docto…

washingtonpost.com/…/abortion-maternity-health-ob…

theguardian.com/…/abortion-idaho-women-rights-hea…

www.usatoday.com/story/news/…/70980770007/

Ranvier,

Yeah it also says don’t cut for stones (kidney stones), but I don’t see us casting urology out of medicine and letting people die of ureter obstructions. Doctors also don’t generally worship Apollo anymore, to the best of my knowledge.

Turns out standards of care and what is possible or safest have evolved since ancient Greece.

Doctors don’t take the literal original hipppcratic oath. There’s a ton of junk in there no one would want doctors to follow. It’s most common for each medical student class to create their own oath in the spirit of the hipppcratic oath when entering medical school, and then take that, or use a modernized version. And yes, vowing to do no abortions would absolutely conflict with “do no harm” in the modern age, and would lead to the needless suffering and death of pregnant individuals.

‘They’ve destroyed us because of some tweets’: why has Saudi Arabia targeted these three sisters? (www.theguardian.com)

Last week one was sentenced to 11 years, another had to flee the country, a third could be arrested at any moment. And what were Manahel, Maryam and Fawzia al-Otaibi’s ‘crimes’? A few social media posts that outraged Saudi Arabia’s conservatives...

Ranvier,

Here’s an article with her being asked about wearing the outfit:

timesofisrael.com/rebel-saudi-women-shun-obligato…

Also beginning in 2019 tourists are allowed to go without an Abaya, at least officially. And apparently in some cities more than others it’s at least somewhat common to see women without. Jedda especially it sounds like? Still very much the norm though.

businessinsider.com/female-solo-traveler-went-to-…

Clothes were another concern. Though foreign women are no longer required to wear an abaya (robe) by law, I was uncomfortable not wearing one. Outside of Jeddah and diplomatic areas of Riyadh, I did not see any women without abayas. Most women also wore hijabs and niqabs. In villages and towns, despite wearing a hijab, I still stood out because I didn’t fully cover my face.

Ranvier,

Yes you’re both correct. It was during that three month period (late January to April) after the version with border security got killed by Trump’s meddling, where Republicans were trying to push a stand alone Israel aid bill without Ukraine aid, and Biden issued his veto threat to any standalone Israel aid bill. The article the person you’re replying to linked was in February, after the border security version one with everything together had failed.

Ranvier,

Turns out doctors prefer helping people, providing needed medical care, and being adaquately trained. They don’t like being thrown in jail. And they want access to obstetrics procedures like abortions for themselves or their loved ones when needed.

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