That means that in the Iowa caucuses:
2.3% of the adults in Iowa voted for Trump.
3.8% of the registered voters in Iowa voted for Trump
9.6% of registered Republicans voters in Iowa voted for Trump
Over 90% of registered republican voters in Iowa chose not to show up and vote for Trump.
@bhawthorne ~2.5 million adults in Iowa. Trump gets the win call with 56k votes. And you are spot on man with his hand up. I don’t understand US politics. The simple fact is, that no matter how determined efforts are to justify Trump by using the complexity, sophistication or proclaimed genius of the US system, they are piss in the wind…because he’s still there. US framers forgot the ‘root out evil’ amendment. #uspol#Trump#Iowa#Us
"That means that in the Iowa caucuses:
2.3% of the adults in Iowa voted for Trump.
3.8% of the registered voters in Iowa voted for Trump
9.6% of registered Republicans voters in Iowa voted for Trump
Over 90% of registered republican voters in Iowa chose not to show up and vote for Trump.
@bhawthorne When I first got into information technology, we were encouraged to think of computers as intelligence amplifiers. Given those numbers, it's a sad fact that social media are an ignorance amplifier.
@bhawthorne This... Doesn't really mean anything. You're ascribing a motive when you can't actually know one. 90% of registered GOP voters in Iowa didn't show up; that's a fact. But saying they "chose not to show up and vote for Trump" is your opinion.
You could have said "90% of registered Republicans in Iowa didn't show up because they were confident Trump would win without their help," or "90% of registered Republican voters in Iowa didn't show up because all the likely winners were sufficiently right-wing." They're all just as supportable.
@thekilt I did not ascribe any motives to anyone. You are reading more into this than I wrote.
But you are correct. I meant to write: “90% of registered republicans chose not to show up and vote. Even for Trump. Thanks for pointing out my poor wording. I’ll go fix it now.
@bhawthorne
How's the Republican voter participation number compare to Republican voter participation in the five previous caucuses? I.E., is this a normal turnout or unusually low?
@mwt That’s a great question! The data are out there, and I’d love to see an analysis. I’ve already provided the turnout numbers for 2020 and 2016 elsewhere in the thread, and the links for the Iowa Secretary of State. If you do the analysis, I’ll boost.
@bhawthorne How did these numbers compare to 2020? And how much of the difference bet attributed to the fact that it was a frozen wasteland in Iowa on caucus day?
@calsnoboarder Yes, the weather likely was responsible for the low turnout, which is why the caucus results are even less relevant than usual.
Numbers were even lower in 2020, as it was an incumbent president and the caucuses were essentially pro-forma.
Iowa Republican Caucus Results 2020
Candidate Votes Pct.
Donald J. Trump* 31,464 97.1%
Bill Weld 426 1.3
Joe Walsh 348 1.1
Other 151 0.5
32,389 votes, (1,765 of 1,765 precincts)
@nichni Sure. Or maybe Trump’s hardcore supporters were more likely to brave the weather. Or any of a million things. I’m just annoyed at news organizations engaging in speculation that has no statistical basis.
@bhawthorne@nichni I Totally agree with your take on US media... but you're sort of doing the same thing... cherry-picking data that doesn't prove or disprove their reporting. Trump's base is mostly older, ignorant, banyard-schooled idiots, and they'll turn out if he asks. Let's see how he performs in areas where the population is not saddled with single-digit IQs.
@dangoodin I completely agree. My post was merely to counter the breathless misinformation being spread that the caucus results have anything to say about how Republican support for Trump has grown since 2016.
All we can say is that Trump was supported by just over half of the handful of registered voters who bothered to brave the weather and attend the caucuses.
@dangoodin@bhawthorne Trumpism is a cult, the MSM fuels the invincibility of its adherents in their single-minded goal to prove loyalty to their God Trump by routing out the MINOs and voting "even if sick" despite the subzero temps and blizzard conditions.
But, truth is, they're neither invincible nor have all Republicans lost their minds in blind fealty to Trump.
He got just over half the votes. 51%. That's barely a majority. He's the only former President running.
What happened his magnificent majority? His relentlessly reported 82% favorability among GOP (YouGov Jan 9, 2024)?
The peril is in both ridiculing his core support and in over-estimating Trump's inevitability.
He's neither as weak as we'd like, or as strong as we fear. He's beatable.
It doesn't matter if Trump wins by a landslide or the thinnest of margins. The world disaster will be the same. Like I said, y'all underestimate the chances of Trump winning at your own peril.
@dangoodin Not underestimating Trump, I am the "y'all" who is directly in the Trump MAGA Nazi death cult crosshairs. I don't get the luxury of straight white male smugness, thanks.
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