European intelligence suggests that Russia may launch an attack on Europe during the winter of 2024-2025 if the United States finds itself "without a leader" following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the German tabloid Bild reported on Dec. 23, citing an anonymous European intelligence source.
I understand many here still thinking that if Russia did not conquer all Ukraine in three days, it means it lost. But right now putin in the winning position. Russia annexed four oblasts, created Azov sea it's inner lake, and have ability to demand ceasefire on its terms. I can see how western countries in fatigue could force Ukraine to start peace talks. Meanwhile russia actively working on help Trump win. Also if AfD would win next year, there is big chance one of the major european workhorses will also took russian side. We could not count Orban's Hungary and Slovakia on west side right now already, and both those countries are bordering Ukraine. If russia really plan that attack, they could use shock tactics, like using nuclear weapon that settled down in Belarus to nuke Poland. After neutralizing it, meat assaults of Baltic states is not so hard, unfortunately, considering population's disproportion. Do not underestimate your military counterpart. And right now russia is the one.
I understand many here still thinking that if Russia did not conquer all Ukraine in three days, it means it lost. But right now putin in the winning position.
Or you prefer copium to reality. The problem today is, every solution except full defeat putin still can sell as his win. And right now he have much more than that. That's why he sends signals about ceasefire. He believes he already is the winner. The most strange and depressing in this situation, it is not Ukraine but western allies acting like they're exhausted, although they didn't do anything actually. It is not their blood that is shed right now in the name of the freedom. While supplies of armaments from US and EU have dried up, Iran and North Korea do it without the problem. Yes, russia can't move line of the front, but Ukraine is in the same position. And Ukrainians admitting that russians could learn and unfortunately doing it alright. Zaluzhny in his interview said there's need in something new like invention of gunpowder, to broke the stalemate. But there is no even arms deliveries in the same volume as it were before. I do believe to the words of Fiona Hill, that republicans, while they think they frame Biden in the election year, actually ruining image of America as whole. Mike Johnson could play new Moses as much as he want, but Ukraine starting to look new recruits among those who escaped. At the same time I do not see russians have problems with meat assaults. Did Johnson thought what would it be, when meat will go forward but there wouldn't be more ammo? I suppose he don't care, because all he want is to part the waves in front of Trump.
Ukraine need constant flow of arm supplies, and they need to have the right to shoot these weapons to targets inside russia. Both those needs already are more wishful thinking, than feasible possibilities. But go ahead, underestimate your military counterpart further.
I can see how western countries in fatigue could force Ukraine to start peace talks.
What fatigue? Do you expect them to say "hey, we spend billions on increasing production capacities. Now we are tired from all that hard work and will just disassemble instead of using them?"
It should be noted that anything the “Bild” reports should be read with a large degree of scepticism. This is a Tabloid masquerading as a newspaper similar to the “The Sun” in the UK.
The only thing the rest of Europe has to worry about from Russia is nukes. Only the smoothest brains would worry about a Russian land invasion after Ukraine. Putin, and Russia, are a kleptocratic joke. They failed to control a single ex “colony” of 1/5th their population — even before the world started mass-armament of their opponent.
If they were dumb enough to take their war beyond Ukraine, they would be hit 10x harder than anything to date, and all of their remaining military personnel and infrastructure would be neutralised within months. They would lose Ukraine and probably the whole country. Putin might be a psychopathic megalomaniac, but I doubt he, or any of his fellow kleptocrats, are completely and irrationally suicidal.
The only thing the rest of Europe has to worry about from Russia is nukes. Only the smoothest brains would worry about a Russian land invasion after Ukraine. Putin, and Russia, are a kleptocratic joke. They failed to control a single ex “colony” of 1/5th their population — even before the world started mass-armament of their opponent. Most of their prior military expertise is decomposing in Eastern Ukraine.
If they were dumb enough to take their war beyond Ukraine, they would be hit 10x harder than anything to date, and all of their remaining military personnel and infrastructure would be neutralised within months. They would lose Ukraine and probably the whole country. Putin might be a psychopathic megalomaniac, but I doubt he, or any of his fellow kleptocrats, are completely and irrationally suicidal.
Never underestimate desperate dictators, they can do anything just to hang on to the throne just one more second, even if it means to destroy their very kingdom.
Regeneration of military forces for Russia is a matter of political will, not military capacity. The casualties are incredibly steep for what was supposed to be a quick and modern war - but they're nowhere near what it would take to remove Russia's, or any other country of comparable size's, capacity to raise large formations of troops.
I highly doubt that EU offensive is on the table, but, well, other than what you’ve said, these aging bastards won’t have any repercussions for whatever they’d order. They don’t lose anything but Vanya units on the map, they’d likely find a great retirement somewhere in Africa in the end. They can gamble whatever they have and still stay on the top.
It’s a question of how EU and NATO can respond, if the’d respond. There’s a need for more tools to make oligarchs, modern-time boyars, lose everything and suffer, maybe even Mossad-style, in order for gating any new offensives. To make them know they won’t be safe after doing X.
Imagine if, all at once, the whole cabinet would fly into Uganda or wherever country Wagner PMC took hold of. Is there an instrument to make them face anything then? Or they can just sniff coke and fuck for the next twenty years? Would there be any consequencies?
To Putin, life of people is nothing. Just throw a million as cannon fodders, and he will be laughing as long as his men don't shoot nukes at this point.
You are mostly right, but why won’t he though? Why didn’t he nuke Harkov, or Kiyv? There’s still something he or his henchmen care about, something setting their limits. And I hope EU intelligence knows about it to rationally plan their response scenarios.
He also knew it wouldn’t be ok with an open invasion. He knew it wouldn’t with Crimea and FSB’s Strelkov in DNR. In Georgia in 2008. In Chechnya. But he gambled.
And for so long no one cared besides directly endangered countries - like it changed your mil in 2014-2022 period from soviet-like pathetic scenes we saw in Donetsk videos (thanks to soviet corruption) to a reliable NATO-trained corps you operate now in a hurry. It’s only after the fact something is happening. And that’s not enough.
This dying piece of shit can think he can do anything, even nukes, if he knows the response would be slow and unmeaningful, or that he’s dying anyway. He needs something to fear in order to care. And now all we know is that he launched everything but nukes, meddled in Ukraine, EU and US policies, but is yet to push the red button. Haha, kay. Why countries having military spending more than that shithole’s gdp even enable that? He needed to have a fucking knife pointed onto his bowels way before everything I mentioned ever happened.
But yet, there we are. And as a paranoidal, not generally well-in-mind after all this madness person, I fear this fuckhead can bomb Kiyv after an obligatory erasion of Voronezh. Until there’s something to hurt him back. And I’m afraid there’re still not enough knifes behind him to really hope he wouldn’t make a parting gift. There’s a lack of a guarantee he wouldn’t do that. There should be one. There should’ve been one before it all happened.
Kharkiv it is. Thanks for reminding me. I’m still a little bit habituated by soviet-russian namings ):
What chutzpah, Russia trying to intimidate people to vote for Trump with threats, while stuck in a quagmire of their own making in Ukraine. I’m sure Europe is shaking in their boots as they watch Russian soldiers ground to paste in just one country, let alone numerous European countries.
I can not imagine the US supporting Russia directly. I can hardly imagine them not supporting EU in a war against Russia but even if that happens I can’t imagine Russia being able to spread their focus across multiple targets, especially targets that activelly can be defended by other nato allies
Also, Russia is a large landmass, but 1/6th the population of the EU, most of their population is centered in a few large cities.
And compared to the EU, even before losing a ton of gear in their venture into Ukraine, they are hilariously outdated and underequiped.
Nah, this is pro Ukraine, pro war industry (and pro Biden?) propaganda. Why would they fight NATO and more importantly with what means when they can barely manage to hold line in Ukraine.
If they can be sure they can snatch ‘disputed territories’ like Transnistria, well, they will.
This war is highly political. Showing a small territory gain to the russian public is more important to Putin than any long-term consequences with NATO.
Did you read the article? It talks like they will be marching to Paris or something. But even if it is Transnistria, how would they do that with Moldova's one foot in NATO and Transnistria positioned between it and Ukraine?
Add comment