jj4211

@jj4211@lemmy.world

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jj4211,

1808142… I’m practically a boomer with that.

Greater Idaho movement: 13 counties in eastern Oregon have voted to secede and join Idaho (ktvz.com)

On Tuesday, voters in Crook County passed measure 7-86, which asked voters if they support negotiations to move the Oregon/Idaho border to include Crook County in Idaho. The measure is passing with 53% of the vote, and makes Crook County the 13th county in eastern Oregon to pass a Greater Idaho measure.

jj4211,

Funnily enough I have one of each of those within about three miles of my home.

jj4211,

They wouldn’t want that if course.

However, of they do this, then they would likely make an argument for reallocating electors…

jj4211,

Keep in mind the presumptive next step is reallocating electors to give Idaho more of them

jj4211, (edited )

Easy. If Oregon loses a bunch of population and land area to Idaho, then they will probably then make an argument for taking away electors from Oregon and give them to Idaho.

Republicans struggle to get popular vote but can get electoral college, slim margins. This would potentially increase their electoral college advantage.

Edit: it has been pointed out that that wouldn’t even need to argue for it, the elector transfer would be automatic at 10 year interval.

jj4211,

Well not going to say, but it is funny because it is a “swing state”.

But realistically this specific area is deep blue, but TSC has a healthy enough market, between nearby rural area and suburbanites that want to play farmer with a couple chickens in the backyard and buying their pet food there.

jj4211,

Ah didn’t bother to look it up, thanks for the clarification.

Though the congressional seats will be a wash, since I’m sure the existing districts already are red.

jj4211,

To the extent they contribute to Oregon’s electoral votes, they would then contribute to Idaho. The fact they are relatively lower population can still move the votes. Have a hard time digging up nice easy data, but they have 8 votes today and even a relative minority of voters going could change that from 8 votes all for democrats to 2 or 3 votes for republican. As someone else said, rinse and repeat for Washington state. Then, off to take part of california to make Nevada a sure thing for republicans and give nevada more votes. Also probably poking all over to erode blue states, carving out some of viginia between kentucky and west viginia, and illinois, colorado, and minnesota are also ripe targets. So Republicans can free up some of those electoral votes that are buried under blue, and press an advantage where they already overcome the popular vote with electoral votes a lot of time.

This is a strategy that won’t work for democrats, as the democratic regions in red states tend to be surrounded by a sea of red, with no logical way to ‘free’ those votes for the benefit of the democrats. They would instead have to push for proportional electoral college votes within their states or to go popular vote nationwide.

So on the one hand, the secession strategy shouldn’t work, as it is explicitly unconstitutional, but the GOP would really want it to happen, and they might be able to make it so. The converse strategies may be constitutional, but would require people to approve of it that would be explicitly undermined by it.

jj4211,

While that is technically true, Microsoft didn’t really make any effort to correct the misunderstanding, despite it being a widely reported story in tech.

I suspect they had a legitimate faction that was going to say “rolling release” and so they let it go.

jj4211,

Well there goes my assumption about her strategy. I thought she was positioning herself as the person who would not kiss the ring if Trump should lose, as the “obvious” choice to lead the party that feels they need to throw trumpism under the bus.

Now, it seems pointless, she had both appeared too anti Trump and also ultimately just another Trump adherent. Seems to be a good way to alienate both sides of the Trump phenomenon.

jj4211,

Depends on the capital.

If it applied to your primary residence, then your prospects to afford to move would be pretty slim. Of course, for most people this won’t matter, since primary residence is exempt for a good amount every two years.

I could also imagine a capital gains offset to account for inflation. If you have 5% gains with 9% inflation, you get to pay taxes despite in real terms losing money.

jj4211,

Without some sort of long term strategy, it may not be.

I’ve always said this would be good if also paired with some moves to improve things longer term, because random infusions of lots of free money without any checks on the university side has already worked to make the education more outrageously expensive. Continuing the strategy without any sort of price management will make things work.

Same could be said of healthcare, if as much money as they ask for is provided to the pharmas and hospitals, they will ask for more and more. Relief must be paired with some sort of plan to mitigate that.

jj4211,

I can understand the perspective, but if the Trump administration deliberately interfered with the PSLF, then it’s a fair point in the obvious goal (to contrast his approach versus Trump’s). Of course, conveniently they waited for an election year, when they could have done this in 2021…

jj4211,

I was thinking more on the university side, some sort of strings attached to have universities a bit more mindful on expense. Waving interest is again a good thing for the borrowers, but it’s still a relatively blank check for the universities.

jj4211,

I hope so, but I’m pessimistic that even with full control that they have the political will to make reasonable reforms. Hoping I get to see what they do with full control for two years at least.

jj4211,

I think an individual jolt of this magnitude will not necessarily move the needle, but I’ve heard commentary about this just being a regular presidential thing to do going forward, which would be a pretty inadequate and unpredictable way (each time binging on happenstance of election, assuming that at least one of them even wants to do the “tradition”). Might be unfair for me to think overmuch on those suggestions, but they always stick in my head in these conversations. Still find it odd that the executive branch should be able to do this sort of thing unilaterally.

jj4211,

This is “unpredictable” only insofar as the previous president refused to let the programs work.

The end result was a promised program that didn’t work as intended and was unreliable. The details are a little less important than the results. However, I’m actually referring broadly to some folks that I saw saying that it should be some sort of presidential ‘ritual’ of forgiving debt, rather than being confined to select programs.

Worry about loan forgiveness to businesses and rich people rather than to poor people and public servants.

Note that I’m less concerned about the loan forgiveness, but instead worry about the “blank check” effect and future affordability and whether or not a student gets stuck with debt assuming they will get forgiven and then get screwed because a future administration refrains from doing so or interferes with ‘forgiveness’. I’d rather circumstances result in no significant debt at all, that government’s willingness to contribute happens up front and universities are somewhat held accountable for their costs to keep that affordable. We can also worry about the crap done for businesses and rich people, but the current situation kind of sucks for planning if you are poor, having to go into massive debt hoping maybe you’ll get in on some forgiveness down the line.

jj4211,

On the other hand, assuming the social system isn’t the right one, hypothetically AI fully realized could make it more unreasonable and more tightly stuck the way it is.

jj4211,

While he specifically is problematic, more damaging would be if he proves that the American people will sign up for a guy who refuses to accept losing and tries to underminine election results and who inspires and endorses folks who openly declared they wanted to control elections to force their party to win.

That green lights a possible destruction of democracy.

He must lose to show everyone that rejecting and manipulating elections is completely unacceptable.

jj4211,

Might not be the only reason, but it’s one of the reasons, and perhaps the most critical.

Of the reasons, this general idea is the most existential threat to our democracy. Everything else, in theory, could be undone in a subsequent election/term. The supreme court appointments are the second most dire, as those can stand for who knows how long.

jj4211,

Come see the violence inherent in the system.

jj4211,

Think the point is that alternative strategies were in play when the biggest, most overwhelming cities in the world were maybe 100k people, the world population was 1% of what it was today, and economic activity was relatively limited in what sorts of goods and services were for trade.

Currency came about because as the indirect bartering relationships became overly complex and the number of participants exploded.

Though the currency situation did set up a sort of ‘meta’ of gaming the numbers for sake of the numbers themselves, which grew out of control until breaking the gold standard. Of course it’s still out of control, but what we see is nothing compared to the instability of a gold standard currency trying to tackle current day human activity.

jj4211,

Sadly, any time a politician should dare change their mind in the face of new experience/evidence they are attacked for waffling, indecisiveness, untrustworthy, or unpredictable by competitors. Nuance and evolving perspectives are punished severely in politics. Of course in this case it’s nothing so noble, but many good politicians have been undone by admitting to changing their minds.

Trump floats idea of three-term presidency at NRA convention (www.theguardian.com)

Donald Trump flirted with the idea of being president for three terms – a clear violation of the US constitution – during a bombastic speech for the National Rifle Association in which he vowed to reverse gun safety measures green-lighted during the Biden administration....

jj4211,

Ah, yes, much better. And also more unambiguously directly a call for a third real term, whereas this time it’s plausible he could be claiming that 2020-2024 was his ‘second term’ already.

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