No offense but “ai” LLMs and Generativen Algorithms are absolutely incapable of doing most jobs at all, because they require either complex thinking, physical work or both.
They are at most, a tool to assist a human doing a job. Everyone telling otherwise is either very against them for some reason, wants to monopolize them (big tech CEOs tell the government AI will kill the world if not regulated, wich basically means “allow me to do whatever i want for your military and stuff and destroy all competition, especially FOSS ones”) or are just to much into a hype train.
Realistically our and most “ai” in the next 50 years is nither intelligent (wich is why “ai” is in quotations) nor is it able to do most jobs, it may become a better version of excel but beyond that there is no actual reason to think it will destroy jobs.
Do you have the slightest idea of how complex most “office jobs” are? There will be some people that get replaced, but only in businesses that treat people like objects already (Callcenters for example)
Most manufacturering could however be replaced by robots.
I have some idea, yeah. Call centers employ a lot of people, as do book-keeping, HR and retail checkouts. It’s not going to code or engineer any time soon, taking a statistically decent guess at what you do, but the percentage of the non-Lemmy population that does that sort of work is tiny.
Manufacturing depends heavily on the specific job. Obviously machining is easily automated (if not the loading and maintenance of the CNC machines themselves), and basic assembly can be too, but once non-rigid or variable materials come into the picture it all gets harder, and any kind of uncontrolled environment seems to make it impossible.
Most Callcenters have a overturn rate of 1 year at best. So them being replaced by AI mostly would probably do everyone a favor, a AI wont commit suicide because of thousands of people complaining and screaming at it…
HR won’t be replaced by AI because they need to to handle sensitive data (wich a ai will not be allowed to handle in most sane places, or rather is already forbidden to do) same with book keeping plus nobody wants a AI to mess shit up and then nobody being responsible for it, retail checkouts are their own thing And funnily enough engineering and coding is probably easier to automate reliability than many other things…
Yes manufacturing depends, but have you seen a actually modern industry 4.0 facilitys? They are 90% robots and thats where the trend goes.
Compartmentalising sensitive data isn’t too hard with AI. LLMs don’t have a memory of their own once out of training, remember. It’s just a matter of setting it up the right way.
The issue with checkouts has been theft, since they basically just trust the user to charge themselves right now. Amazon’s Just Walk Out is the technology to watch for that kind of checkout, and for anything where shoppers don’t collect items themselves LLMs can do a decent job without finetuning.
It’s not going to replace every job, not with current capabilities anyway, but enough to drive a big economic shift? Yeah, I do agree with the IMF on that.
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