This prediction market has May at 50%, and that’s mainly because I keep buying it off he back of news like this. Seems like a lot of people are May doubters.
Reasons I think May is the most likely candidate are:
expected polling bounce off a giveaway budget in March
small boat numbers are at their natural minimum and only rise as Summer begin
later in the year you start running into things like party conference, which you don’t want to miss, and fuel bills, which are going to be a bad news story again. Even if you rank “holding on to power above all else” as the most important thing, a late Q4 election looks a terrible mistake.
I don’t buy it. They know they will lose the next election, the only question is how much damage they can do before they’re kicked out. He just wants to introduce his upper middle-class tax cuts/subsidies as soon as possible so that they can steal as much as possible from the rest of us.
They’ll hang on for another ~year yet, sad to say.
It depends on whether they think they can _somehow_squeak a win, and when that might be.
If their number crunchers have said their best chance is in May, and that with the right tailwind they might be able to form a coalition government, then we can expect them to go full “sweets for everyone”, and offer every incentive in the box.
The other side of this, is that they need Brexit Party (sorry, Reform UK) either out of the way, or need enough policies that will appease those voters. So I’m expecting some lunacy on the level of “stop the boats”. Or maybe they’ll just invade France.
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