ToasterOverlord

ToasterOverlord, 7 days ago

Hate to say it but Ohio State is in a league of their own with how they handled the portal. Honorable mention would probably be Nebraska.

After that, Oregon, Texas, Miami, Ole Miss, and Syracuse stand out to me, but who knows if their portal splashes will translate to on-field success. Then there’s the Georgia and Alabama tier of teams that I expected to lose talent but were able to keep some key guys (Michigan probably belongs here, but lost too many coaches for my comfort).

As for coaching changes, I think New Mexico, Texas A&M (blegh), Houston, Michigan State, and Indiana all had clear upgrades, although it will take a couple years to see the results. And signing classes are still crucial for sustained success, but in this era they’re less relevant to winning this season than ever.

ToasterOverlord, 1 month ago

I don’t think my engagement has changed per se, but probably for a couple reasons.

• I’ve never bet on a game, and have no interest in doing so. I like making predictions, although I imagine betting on my hobby would be like when I play poker: I tend to beat my poker friends but find it more stressful than when there’s no money on the line.
• I didn’t follow cfb until I actually went to college so I think I missed the period cfb fans have the most nostalgia for. I have a hunch that if I had grown up with the SWC, I would be longing for that era. So the fan experience is probably degrading (probably moreso from other changes besides gaming), but its still good enough to keep me engaged.

What I have always hated is the spread. Why does it matter if a team reaches some fabricated number? You either win the game or you don’t. The ugly side is when degenerate gamblers harrass players that allowed the other team to “backdoor cover.”

Also, the XFL was egregious in its commentary last year, and I suspect eventually cfb broadcasts will openly talk about lines incessantly. When it gets to that point, I’ll mute the TV and find the local radio call instead.

ToasterOverlord, 1 month ago

I used to do that when I lived in Austin if the broadcast crew wasn’t great. They didn’t always sync up though.

My pipe dream is someday we’ll have something like F1TV: a good FBS-wide dedicated streaming platform where you can choose what camera to watch (A22 please!) and different commentary options. Would be cool to switch between both local calls for a neutral game. Although I imagine getting the licenses for all of those things would cost extraordinary amounts of money, and probably is not possible in the current media landscape. But with the way things are heading, that might be one good thing that could come out of superconferences. And I would pay top dollar for it. I wonder if the NFL is already doing something like that.

ToasterOverlord, 2 months ago

Texas @ Michigan. Going to try my darndest to make it to that game. Even though Michigan is my 2nd favorite team, I can’t root against my alma mater, and I quite like Texas’s chances.

ToasterOverlord, 3 months ago

So basically what this boils down to is the question: is Tennessee athletics “Too Big To Fail”? (The answer is going to be yes, so not sure why the NCAA is getting testy.) Because the reason this particular investigation is a bigger deal than usual is the Vols are in “Repeat Violator” territory which means the “Death Penalty” would on the table.

This is going to backfire spectacularly for the NCAA though. The Virginia AG has joined this suit (for reasons unclear, but he clearly has a bone to pick with them after how they handled JMU). If you count other active suits against the NCAA, that’s like 10 attorneys general now. One of these cases will probably be heard before the Supreme Court where the anti-trust exemption is going to be blown to smithereens, now that we’re in the NIL era, and the NCAA (as we know it) will cease to exist.

Also, good to see posts federating properly again. With all the Lemmy upgrade issues in January, it looked like some posts and comments were getting lost in the void so I kept away for a bit waiting for a more stable release.

ToasterOverlord, 4 months ago

hoping they try to end playoff games before midnight in future years

Amen to that. My own team was playing in the Sugar Bowl and I had to go to bed in the 4th quarter because I had work early in the morning. Total farce.

As for FSU, I think they got screwed (a little). They had almost no starters playing in the bowl game so we can’t really use that result to justify or criticize the committee’s decision. I do think we got a better playoff, though, which is what they were tasked with. At the end of the day, I’m just glad the 4-team playoff era is over.

ToasterOverlord, 4 months ago

My final ballot. Computer poll. Who’s got it better than Michigan? Evidently absolutely nooooobody. But it’s pretty standard that my poll puts the CFP winner ahead by a wide margin (a notable exception being when it declared an OSU as the national champion in 2017).

I know it’s weird that Oregon finished ahead of Washington, although it’s really close. Keep in mind this is essentially a power rating – put those 2 teams on a neutral site tomorrow and I’m sure Vegas would still favor Oregon despite the H2H. For the record, I personally don’t but I tried to eliminate as much bias as possible from the algorithm.

Also, pretty happy with Texas at number 5. It was a good season.

Bonus musing: Since I’ve ran the last 9 CFB seasons through the same algorithm, I was curious how this Michigan team compares to other top teams. Turns out the 2023 Wolverines rank number 4 out of 1,106 FBS teams^1^, trailing only 2022 Georgia, 2019 LSU, and 2021 Georgia (in that order). Also, if any sickos are wondering who the worst team was, it’s likely 2020 UMass (or 2019 UMass if you want to exclude the COVID year).

^1^Apparently half my data for the 2018 season got wiped somehow, but fortunately it kept the top 70 teams. I’ll have to crunch that season’s numbers again at some point, but at least it won’t have any bearing on the comparison of elite teams. Also, in 2020 I only ranked 127 teams since 3 opted out, and that season in general had a slightly adjusted formula for obvious reasons.

https://fanaticus.social/pictrs/image/3bc84786-1ded-47ce-842d-ed26c92883a2.png

::: spoiler Full ranking:

Rank	Change	Team	Record	Points
1	-	Michigan	15-0	1217
2	+4	Georgia	13-1	1021
3	-1	Oregon	12-2	994
4	+1	Washington	14-1	988
5	-2	Texas	12-2	935
6	-2	Florida State	13-1	865
7	+4	Notre Dame	10-3	851
8	-	Alabama	12-2	850
9	-2	Ohio State	11-2	849
10	-1	Oklahoma	10-3	824
11	-1	Penn State	10-3	806
12	+1	Arizona	10-3	794
13	+2	Kansas State	9-4	760
14	-2	Louisville	10-4	755
15	+3	Missouri	11-2	746
16	-2	SMU	11-3	745
17	-	LSU	10-3	724
18	+3	Ole Miss	11-2	722
19	-3	Liberty	13-1	703
20	+10	Tennessee	9-4	698
T21	+7	USC	8-5	695
T21	+5	Virginia Tech	7-6	695
23	-1	Kansas	9-4	684
24	-	Clemson	9-4	677
25	-3	Texas A&M	7-6	676
26	+3	Oklahoma State	10-4	673
27	-7	Oregon State	8-5	669
28	-9	Iowa	10-4	668
29	-3	Duke	8-5	667
30	-5	Troy	11-3	666
31	-1	Wisconsin	7-6	653
32	+9	Maryland	8-5	650
33	-1	Miami (FL)	7-6	647
34	+12	West Virginia	9-4	643
35	+5	UCLA	8-5	639
T36	-2	Miami (OH)	11-3	637
T36	+1	Utah	8-5	637
T36	-1	UCF	6-7	637
39	-7	North Carolina	8-5	634
40	+4	Kentucky	7-6	625
41	-2	Iowa State	7-6	624
42	-4	JMU	11-2	623
T43	-2	Toledo	11-3	621
T43	-	NC State	9-4	621
45	-10	New Mexico State	10-5	618
46	-1	Boise State	8-6	613
47	-	Appalachian State	9-5	612
48	+10	South Alabama	7-6	611
49	+3	UTSA	9-4	610
50	+5	Georgia Tech	7-6	606
51	+6	Texas Tech	7-6	603
52	-4	Auburn	6-7	598
53	-2	UNLV	9-5	594
54	+5	Memphis	10-3	584
55	+4	Northwestern	8-5	583
56	-3	Tulane	11-3	580
57	+7	Fresno State	9-4	575
58	+10	Air Force	9-4	570
59	+8	Rutgers	7-6	569
60	+6	Ohio	10-3	568
61	-13	Washington State	5-7	564
62	-12	Nebraska	5-7	559
63	+1	Jacksonville State	9-4	556
64	-11	TCU	5-7	549
65	-3	California	6-7	546
66	+5	Northern Illinois	7-6	543
T67	+5	Wyoming	9-4	534
T67	+12	Boston College	7-6	534
69	-13	Florida	5-7	533
70	+5	Minnesota	6-7	529
71	+5	Bowling Green	7-6	527
72	-	San Jose State	7-6	526
73	+4	Louisiana	6-7	517
74	-13	South Carolina	5-7	516
75	-12	Illinois	5-7	513
76	+7	Texas State	8-5	510
77	-9	Colorado	4-8	507
78	-8	Purdue	4-8	504
79	+23	USF	7-6	503
80	+6	Coastal Carolina	8-5	496
81	-7	Syracuse	6-7	495
82	+3	Western Kentucky	8-5	491
83	-2	Rice	6-7	482
84	-6	Arkansas	4-8	471
85	+9	Old Dominion	6-7	467
86	+2	Georgia Southern	6-7	465
T87	+9	Arkansas State	6-7	462
T87	-7	Houston	4-8	462
89	-7	Pittsburgh	3-9	456
90	+15	Georgia State	7-6	452
91	+4	Utah State	6-7	450
92	-9	Wake Forest	4-8	449
93	+5	Marshall	6-7	444
94	-7	BYU	5-7	441
95	-6	Mississippi State	5-7	434
96	-6	Cincinnati	3-9	432
T97	-6	FAU	4-8	431
T97	-6	Indiana	3-9	431
99	-6	Virginia	3-9	429
100	-3	UNT	5-7	418
101	-3	Colorado State	5-7	416
102	-1	Eastern Michigan	6-7	413
103	-3	Middle Tennessee	4-8	412
104	-1	Baylor	3-9	404
105	-1	Sam Houston	3-9	402
T106	-1	San Diego State	4-8	392
T106	-1	Buffalo	3-9	392
108	-	Hawaii	5-8	387
109	-	Central Michigan	5-7	383
110	-	ECU	2-10	380
T111	-	Ball State	4-8	379
T111	-	Arizona State	3-9	379
T113	-	Army	5-6	377
T113	-	Western Michigan	4-8	377
115	-	Michigan State	4-8	372
116	-	UAB	4-8	371
117	-	UTEP	3-9	367
118	-	Louisiana Tech	3-9	360
119	-	Navy	5-6	355
120	-	Connecticut	3-9	353
121	-	Akron	2-10	352
T122	-	New Mexico	4-8	348
T122	-	Stanford	3-9	348
T124	-	Charlotte	3-9	345
T124	-	Vanderbilt	2-10	345
126	-	Tulsa	4-8	342
127	-	FIU	4-8	338
128	-	Southern Mississippi	3-9	329
129	-	Nevada	2-10	324
130	-	Massachusetts	3-9	312
131	-	Temple	3-9	304
132	-	UL Monroe	2-10	284
133	-	Kent State	1-11	259

ToasterOverlord, 4 months ago

Ah, but that’s canceled out by me (and a whole lotta folks) thinking Washington is going to lose. All season the doubting has resulted in a Huskies win. Something’s gotta give!

ToasterOverlord, 4 months ago

Oh no, ACC refs?!

ToasterOverlord, 4 months ago

Beautiful opening drive!

ToasterOverlord, 4 months ago

They used 2 TOs on the opening drive, only to settle for 3? Uhhh, okay

ToasterOverlord, 4 months ago

Hail yes, Edwards is the man!!

ToasterOverlord, 4 months ago

Hail Sainristil!!! Super clutch INT!

ToasterOverlord, 4 months ago

Hail to the victors! GG, Washington

ToasterOverlord, 4 months ago

I’m going Michigan 31-28