Arcturus avatar

Arcturus

@Arcturus@kbin.social

How China became the king of new nuclear power, and how the U.S. is trying to stage a comeback (www.cnbc.com)

China has 21 nuclear reactors under construction which will have a capacity for generating more than 21 gigawatts of electricity, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. That is two and a half times more nuclear reactors under construction than any other country....

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

Renewables?

Arcturus, (edited )
Arcturus avatar

It's still overall, a small part of their grid. They don't have plans to expand their nuclear fleet all too much. A good chunk are experimental, and for military research.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

I have two family subscriptions. I find it worth it. It's quite cheap on Stacksocial (even cheaper if you have a discount code).

On top of that, I have one of these routers at home. It comes in-built with Adguard Home. There is a newer, better model coming out soon as well.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

Sweden was a bit of an outlier though. Most younger Swedes live alone. And they tend to follow government advisories. New Zealand's strategy was stellar, particularly early on in the pandemic. You could do what you want. I remember we were out having concerts as if there was no pandemic, thanks to the zero COVID strategy. But by late-Delta, early-Omicron, zero COVID could not longer be sustained, and it was clear only mitigations would stick. The government hoped to eliminate it like they did the other times, but it was just impossible then, people had become complacent. But yes, on the healthcare-side and economic-side, NZ fared better than Sweden.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

I'm sure that played a part of the early response. But then we were also lucky that, it didn't initially spread on our shores early on. So the initial first lockdown, and a few subsequent ones, were short and sweet. But then the later ones, we got a bit complacent. It was also when the conspiracies and anti-vax movement was taking off...

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

Ukraine is part of Russia? Does that mean Kiev can legally march on Moscow?

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

Yet studies show that renewables decarbonise faster and the only way for nuclear to complete is basically in a majority renewables grid. Oh, and also be 25% cheaper. Which is not ideal.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

If there is no wind or sun, we're facing a global apocalypse. There's always wind or sun. You just need to capture it. Nuclear is not on demand either, most plants aren't designed to be. Nuclear is designed to be baseload energy, which, for decades, has fallen out of favour in lieu of more flexible doctrines. Octopus Energy is doing quite a bit of work with AI and energy demand, using incentives to control public energy consumption, which reduces the backup you would need for renewables. Also, that study I referenced, presumes about a 25% decrease in cost of nuclear. Again, best case scenario for nuclear.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

You can't go cheap on nuclear. Otherwise you're looking at a myriad of political corruption and safety concerns, which in part will cost you a government, where you'll eventually have to start all over again. Or you could just invest in renewables. Like what China is overwhelmingly doing.

Arcturus, (edited )
Arcturus avatar

So, you're going to spend, billions, to build a nuclear powerplant, that will decarbonise at a slower rate, never turn a profit, be an economic sinkhole megaproject, or, you could just build a solar panel or wind turbine in like, a year, where it'll be functional and working. Profits allow you to reinvest into more projects. Losses, mean you're putting endless amounts of money into less.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

It is, I've not seen a single academic study show otherwise. Not the west, nor China, have shown scepticism towards renewables. But there's plenty of that when it comes to the nuclear question. Just look at HPC and SWC in the UK. Companies won't touch it unless the UK government guarantees they make a profit. Not a long term profit. A profit before the project is completed. They want an advance. Then there's the US, over-budget and delayed. Finland, over-budget and delayed. France, over-budger and delayed. EDF prefer their renewables investments than their nuclear ones, mainly because half their nuclear plants are unreliable, and nobody wants to waste more money on them.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

If you're constantly pouring money into a loss-making industry, it means you're not efficiently managing your resources to build more projects. Profits from renewables can be reinvested before a single plant can't be constructed. And that nuclear plant, will never make enough profit to build another.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

The US Navy isn't concerned about making their fleets commercially viable. Taxpayers expect to subsidise defence, and for the US, this is done at vast cost. They don't expect to constantly be funding an expensive, loss-making powerplant. Not when alternatives are cheaper and more effective.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

Fusion, has been a promise made by nuclear for decades, much like the car industry's promise of green fuels. In the meantime, the university of Stanford semi-regularly updates a paper showing a transition to 100% for the world. It's made possible now, particularly with the innovations done by renewables companies improving efficiency in production, recycling, and AI made available for demand prediction. And we have been investing in nuclear, for many decades. A small kickstart in the renewables industry has built a giant global realistic renewables push. Everyone's happy with renewables. Governments, energy companies, insurance companies. Nuclear will remain a promise and a giant drain on resources.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

Wholesale power prices are cheaper in Germany than they are in France. Last year France had to shut down half their reactors for maintenance and weather. Germany had to export to them. Before the French government bailed out the nuclear industry again, there was talk of splitting up EDF from their profitable renewables investments, away from its loss-making nuclear problem. EDF's CEO resigned because of the vast cost of the UK's HPC nuclear plant. And now, under agreement with the UK government, EDF can make a profit from HPC without it actually being constructed with their RAB model.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

Yeah, it genuinely is. Doesn't take too long to find the lobby groups. A lot of funding comes from mining. Also, RAB funding (from the government) allows nuclear companies to earn a profit without having the plant completed yet. So there is money to be made. Ever wonder why there's a lot of pro-nuke videos on YouTube? Rather than academic spaces? Which time and again shows you that renewables are superior in virtually every way?

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

Look at the industry's growth in France though. Renewables has been growing at the expense of nuclear. This is happening in Germany as well.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

So who goes around switching off the sun and turning off the wind?

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

This relates to China because they're literally by far have invested the heaviest in renewable energy. A good amount of their nuclear reactors are experimental and for research, some are looking at military applications for ships. Renewables growth in China far outstrips their nuclear efforts. As per what the original article I mentioned indicates. China isn't serious about their nuclear plans, it's a combined research, military, national pride thing. Unlike their renewables investments, which you can see outstrips nuclear today, and in the future from sources given, backed by scientific papers also given.

Arcturus, (edited )
Arcturus avatar

The point of making a profit, is so that you can re-invest and allow private industries into the market.

If I made you a loaf of bread, which took 15 mins, and you could sell it for $2 profit. You would be able to sell more pieces of bread correct?

If another person made you a loaf of bread, which took three days to complete, and you make a loss of $10 with each one sold, how many more pieces of bread are you willing to sell?

One feeds your population, the other has to be bailed out by the government, and everyone loses money and investment and time.

This is why China prioritises renewables, renewables are considered superior to nuclear when decarbonising the grid, and the best case scenario for nuclear, according to scientists in academia (as opposed to pro-nuke Youtube videos), requires nuclear to be a minor player in a majority renewables grid (and also be 25% cheaper). Unfortunately making nuclear cheaper, is not ideal.

The pro-nuke argument is literally funded by the mining lobby and the fossil fuels industry. Which is why most of their resources are from lobby groups, YouTube videos, public books, and TED talks... Because they know it's going to be ineffective, and they only need to convince the public. Much like how the whole hydrogen-powered cars narrative is going, or environmentally friendly fuels. It's an expensive distraction.

See the RAB that the UK has for the HPC nuke plant build. Companies are allowed to make a profit even before the powerplant is completed. The government will handle insurance, and decommissioning. Which, happens over a century, at taxpayers expense, and it produces no energy. There's also the storage of radioactive material. All of this, uses money and resources that could otherwise be used for constructing renewables (and the fossil fuels industry loves this plan, because every moneypit nuke plant that is constructed, less renewables are built, and fossils gets to remain in the game because they then become only just one of the underperformers, rather than all), decarbonising the grid (faster, see study), and on top of that, everybody makes money.

But don't worry, renewables are also cheaper and more profitable than fossils in most applications as well, so they'll lose out on future energy projects, besides, like in Germany's case, being used as a backup.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

Let me pose you another question. Why do you think, the British Conservatives have invested in making HPC happen (finally agreeing to the demand to allow investing companies to turn a profit even before any energy is produced)? Why have conservatives in South Korea planned to restart a new nuclear industry despite accusations of corruption? Why is it the conservatives in Australia love the idea of nuclear? Is it because they can do the good old-fashioned trope of using the state to make their private company chums some money? Or is it because it's for the goodness of their hearts, and concern for their citizens, while they dismantle the NHS and privatise it, for example?

Arcturus, (edited )
Arcturus avatar

So, you're going to build a powerplant, that people don't want to fund, that governments are reluctant to build? You'll need to create a government agency responsible for the design and planning, another responsible for training new powerplant workers, another one for the decommissioning process, and another for insurance, and another as a safety watchdog, which might come online in a decade if you're lucky, or closer to two decades if you're not, only for it to not be as effective as renewables, be a constant drain on taxpayers, not be entirely reliable, and be more expensive as an energy source than renewables. Sure, good luck with that plan. I wish you well garnering political and academic support with that. In the meantime, universities, companies, and governments will generally avoid it like the plague. Unless or course, there's a nuclear industry that already exists and needs to be subsidised, or a military nuclear requirement to keep the talent and designs ongoing.

You're deliberately going to build nuclear, ignore studies telling you that renewables decarbonise faster. Because you want to decarbonise. Only for your personal opinions, backed by the fossils and mining industry? You're going to give the fossil industry a lot of money over the first 10 years of absolutely nothing happening.

I will add, the election promises the conservative Swedes have made seem to have disappeared. How convenient.

Arcturus,
Arcturus avatar

Sweden's approach is over.

They have no targets, the industry isn't interested, and the government's analysis has been based on nothing.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Q70mzQ/regeringen-svanger-om-karnkraftsreaktorerna

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-01/uniper-dents-swedish-nuclear-hopes-with-firm-no-to-new-plants

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