There are 4 elections in Germany in 2024 that are relevant
9 June - European election
1 Sept - Land elections in Sachsen and Thüringen
22 Sept - Land election in Brandenburg
But first the political situation overall, with the three party (SPD, Greens, FDP) traffic light coalition (Ampel in German) at federal level perceived to be struggling, fractious etc.
The first question: will the coalition survive 2024? My answer, with a 80% chance is yes, it will. Not because of any particular strength of the coalition, but because each of the three parties within it fears they’d fare worse by leaving
Scholz is obviously a weak and poor Chancellor. Feted as the successor to Merkel by the international press, he manages to combine his predecessor’s ideological vagueness with an ability to not take decisions nor corral his coalition partners.
SPD has no one but Scholz, and even though SPD is 11% down (26% to 15%) in the polls compared to the 2021 Bundestag election, the party will sit it out, hoping somehow better days are ahead.
Greens - 14% in polls, just 1% down - have been in eye of every political storm in past 12 months, unlikely to change. While the leadership’s tougher line on immigration, and weaker line on climate commitments, has angered the membership, the voters have largely stayed. The Greens will see this through.
The FDP (polling 5%, Bundestagswahl 12%) has just asked its members about whether they should stay in the coalition, and a rump of about a fifth of the members want out. Lindner, the finance minister and party leader, wants to stay - and hopes to find some recipe to get some voters back. Expect loads of grumbles from the FDP, but jumping is too risky.
Merz’s CDU (CDU-CSU polling 32%, Bundestag 2021 24%) is doing well enough to keep the criticism off him, but that score is only what Merkel achieved in 2017 - at the time was considered a failure for the Christian Democrats. However if Merz keeps the CDU ahead of the AfD in the polls, he’ll be safe.
Right wing populist AfD (polling 22%, Bundestag 2021 10%) is steadily on the rise, helped by an ever more shrill argument about immigration (to which CDU has also contributed) and perceived tiredness with mainstream parties. The rest of the political spectrum doesn’t know what to do about this rise.
The unknown is how the new party - BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fares - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%BCndnis_Sahra_Wagenknecht
It will likely draw some voters from both Linke and AfD, and Wagenknecht’s media reach will help it - but I cannot see it growing to beyond c. 5% in the course of 2024.
@jon isn't there some chance that BSW removing the tankies and other objectionable elements from Die Linke would render them an acceptable option for dissatisfied voters on the left edge of the SPD?
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