The odds of the UK recovering the position it had before Brexit are extremely low, I think. Even Brazil is better positioned to recover what it lost in the last 10 years...
#UK#Brexit#Globalization#Elections: "The British prime minister called a general election for July 4, and like Biden he is weighed down by deep public pessimism over the economy. But unlike Biden, Sunak can’t claim that pessimism is disconnected from hard data.
Britain has had one of the worst performances of major economies since the pandemic broke out in 2020, with lower growth, higher inflation and weaker investment than its peers.
Blame bad luck, and bad choices. Some of those choices fall at the feet of the Tories, in particular the decision to leave the European Union. But that doesn’t mean Labour, which might form the next government, will do better. And in that lie lessons for the rest of the world: whatever the flaws of globalization, turning your back on it can be costly, and difficult to undo.
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Between early 2016 and the end of 2023, British investment fell 17% relative to other developed economies, according to J.P. Morgan. Half of that can be plausibly tied to the administrative barriers and uncertainty brought on by Brexit. A study co-written by Jonathan Haskel, a policymaker at the Bank of England, put investment in the U.K. 10% lower in 2022 than if the pre-2016 trend had persisted."
