I wonder: In many energy graphs, we see a lowered total energy demand in the recent years.
This is often attributed to businesses fleeing the country due to higher energy prices (mostly by pro-fossil propaganda).
I believe that there is unaccounted local solar consumption that is consumed when it is produced where it is produced and never shows up in any stats, leading to lowered demand during peak solar hours.
@isotopp
Energy (electricity) demand reported includes self consumption of locally produced solar power.
Power demand is usually calculated as the sum of the total national power production + import - export.
Production of solar PV is estimated using the installed solar capacity and solar radiation, with a model which is similar to the one in Energiepowek.nl.
Unfortunately, this type of research entirely depends on the scope limitations and the assumptions made. For instance, does it take into scope that solar cells have say 20% efficiency or does it start with the output of solar cells? Etc...
What counts, in the end, for most citizens, are costs, not efficiency. Fortunately, costs of an energy system entirely based on renewable energy production are shrinking. But way have still a way to go.
On Sunday 12 May, in the Netherlands, I estimate that 65% of all onshore wind production had to be curtailed.
Also large curtailments will have taken place for large scale solar and offshore wind.
Note: real time onshore wind data in ENTSO-E are from wind parks connected to the TSO network. These are mainly large wind parks.
Since most other wind parks in the NL are operated, on behalve of the owners, by companies with 24/7 dealing rooms, I expect a similar behavior for those parks.
In the afternoon, according to Energieopwek, there was potentially 24 GW power production by solar and wind alone, while the market could only absorb half of it.
The fact that zero and even negative prices occurred, showed as well that there was considerable overloading.
In 2024, so far, there have been 85 hours with wholesale power prices in the whole ARRRA region (DE/BE/NL) below 1 €/MWh, indicating that solar and wind in these hours outpace electricity demand.
Since in the coming years, solar and wind will grow much faster than electricity demand years, an increase of such hours may be expected.
@FabianLaasch
It is not a big problem in my view. One of the consequences is that, during these hours, efficiency hardly matters, while network capacity does.
While some EU-countries treat 'energy' as a 'basic need' and apply the low VAT rate, others treat energy as a 'luxury good' and apply the high VAT rate.
@bolzano
No, the mentioned reduction deals with the energy taxes which come on top of the 21% VAT and, by the way, would be by far the highest in Europe without the reduction mentioned.
@adnan
This is based on national consumption.
The Netherlands has a 5-10% net export of electricity produced. Hence, the percentage based on production would be 5-10% less.
So far the Netherlands has experienced 92 hours with a negative (day ahead) power price this year.
At the end of April in 2023, it were just 52 hours.
In the Netherlands, solar and wind increase by about 20% per year, while power demand is about stable.
@Schneebesen
In my view, in 2023, Solar PV capacity innNL reached a critical level from which it often ‘outperformed’ Dutch power demand (minus must run) including export potential.
In 2024, until now, the Netherlands has about 3% of all hours negative day ahead power prices. In 2023, this was 2%.
Negative prices can be seen as an anomaly of the power system, but appear for 2-3% of the time, almost everywhere in Europe in 2024.
I expect (and have predicted that years ago) that this phenomenon will become a common feature in Europe from 2025 onwards.
Nee. Gas kan gemakkelijk en goedkoop in grote hoeveelheden worden opgeslagen, dus zal niet snel een negatieve waarde krijgen.
Negatieve stroomprijzen betreft overaanbod uit wind en zon. De spaarzame gascentrales die dan nog draaien maken sec verlies op verkochte elektriciteit, maar verdienen hun geld met dienstverlening aan TenneT of anderen die flex nodig hebben en/of worden 'warm gehouden' met het oog op de avondpiek wanneer wel (zeer) winstgevend kan worden geproduceerd.
Ze zijn gekoppeld op (nog) heel veel uren dat er onvoldoende zon en wind (en kernenergie) is om in de stroomvraag te voorzien, inclusief effect import/export, waardoor gascentrales de marginale MWh produceren.
Interesting distribution of power prices in NW-Europe, tomorrow afternoon, April 11th.
In Germany, there is significant sunshine and consequently, day-ahead electricity is almost free (€0,57/MWh).
In the Netherlands, it is cloudy and some drizzle is expected and consequently, the day-ahead electricity price is rather high (85,05/MWh).
The Dutch could have produced 24 GW from solar and wind this afternoon. However, with a national demand of about 13 GW and 6 GW export, significant solar and wind had to be curtailed.
This curtailment is not (yet) included in the app www.energieopwek.nl
@rwwh
Yes, offshore wind are measured quantities (ENTSO-E), and thus including curtailment.
Onshore wind and solarPV are, by lack of measured data, modeled quantities, which does not take curtailment into account
@DrJay In 2013, the allDutch stakeholders ('polder') agreed on a concrete plan ('Energieakkoord'). After a few years of preparations, including subsidy schemes, a massive roll out of, in particular, solar and wind (onshore and offshore) occurred. Is is a form a central planning, with the execution by market participants.