Since 2004, the fraction of renewable energy in EU27 has increased by about 0,8% percentagepoints per year.
I estimate that the annual increase will be larger in 2023 and 2024. This increase is mainly due to the very high energy prices and hence, lower final energy demand, power and gas, and hence, the shrinkage of industrial production.
Nevertheless, it will require significant more efforts to get to 42,5% renewables in the EU27 energy mix in 2030, as agreed in the Green Deal. Realistic?
In 2024, until now, most EU-countries have had 4-5% hours with negative day ahead power prices.
Since the growth of solar and wind occurs at a much faster rate than the growth of electricity consumption*, it may be expected that the amount of such hours will increase significantly in coming years.
*since 2010, EU electricity demand is stable, which implies that increase in consumption (e.g. ICT) is compensated by savings, e.g. due to the EU-ecodesign measures.
Last week, the Netherlands had, on average 4 hours per day with a negative day-ahead power price.
Until now, the Netherlands had 155 of such hours this year, compared to 65 last year in the same period, and 31 in 2022. A significant increase. We see this in most European countries.
The expansion of solar and wind occurs much quicker than the increase of power demand. Consequently, negative and near-zero power prices, with significant curtailment of solar and wind, will become more common.
On the one hand, this is a sign that energy transition is gaining momentum as wind and solar require significant amounts of copper.
On the other hand, it indicates that mining capacity is not increasing sufficently and moreover, it implies that the energy transition will become more costly.
On Sunday 12 May, in the Netherlands, I estimate that 65% of all onshore wind production had to be curtailed.
Also large curtailments will have taken place for large scale solar and offshore wind.
Note: real time onshore wind data in ENTSO-E are from wind parks connected to the TSO network. These are mainly large wind parks.
Since most other wind parks in the NL are operated, on behalve of the owners, by companies with 24/7 dealing rooms, I expect a similar behavior for those parks.
In the afternoon, according to Energieopwek, there was potentially 24 GW power production by solar and wind alone, while the market could only absorb half of it.
The fact that zero and even negative prices occurred, showed as well that there was considerable overloading.
Tomorrow day-time, everywhere in Europe negative power prices.
Various European countries have similar amounts of hours of such prices so far this year. An exception is Greece.
Tomorrow from 12 AM to 3 PM, very low prices, below -100 €/MWh occur in a large area comprising the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium up to Switzerland, Austria and Hungary.
@BM_Visser@zaphodb AIUI the UK's problem is a lack of north/south grid capacity to take electricity generated in Scotland (consistently >100% of demand served by renewables) south to England (not enough renewables). Meanwhile Scottish consumers end up paying MORE for electricity than the English because the market is rigged. Can't think why.
In 2024, so far, there have been 85 hours with wholesale power prices in the whole ARRRA region (DE/BE/NL) below 1 €/MWh, indicating that solar and wind in these hours outpace electricity demand.
Since in the coming years, solar and wind will grow much faster than electricity demand years, an increase of such hours may be expected.
@FabianLaasch
It is not a big problem in my view. One of the consequences is that, during these hours, efficiency hardly matters, while network capacity does.
While some EU-countries treat 'energy' as a 'basic need' and apply the low VAT rate, others treat energy as a 'luxury good' and apply the high VAT rate.
@BM_Visser In case of the netherlands quite misleading, since there is a reduction just because of basic need, which is preferrable over an overall low VAT rate.
@bolzano
No, the mentioned reduction deals with the energy taxes which come on top of the 21% VAT and, by the way, would be by far the highest in Europe without the reduction mentioned.
In April 2024, the Netherlands, experienced on almost all days for some hours a more than 100% contribution of solar and wind to the national power demand.
Overproduction of solar and wind electricity was either exported, up to 50% of national demand, or had to be curtailed for technical or commercial reasons.
@adnan
This is based on national consumption.
The Netherlands has a 5-10% net export of electricity produced. Hence, the percentage based on production would be 5-10% less.
Tomorrow May 1st, a national Holiday in many European countries.
As a 'bonus', electricity is free* between about 10 AM and 5 PM. Also in Spain (not on the map) and even in Poland.
*excluding taxes and not for those, who have fixed rates..