Jean Fisch inspired me to calculate previous-year cumulative incidences and output the reciprocal number of years between infections, based on my calibration for the Zurich wastewater data.
It looks like this and broadly similar to what Jean gets for England:
Data until week 19: The median distance to the FSO expectation of weekly mortality of the 65+ age group in 2024 is 102 fewer weekly deaths. Average is 113 fewer deaths.
Data until week 20: The median distance to the FSO expectation of weekly mortality of the 65+ age group in 2024 is 108 fewer weekly deaths. Average is 113 fewer deaths.
Maybe we even witnessed a bit of Covid-related mortality within the last few weeks.
Note that the new WISE dashboard data appears to feature a centered 7d median, vs. the last-7d-median of the Eawag data.
I haven't compensated for that in above charts and I can't perfectly reproduce the given values by applying a centered 7 median on the single data points.
For what it's worth: At an estimated 30% FLiRT (JN.1* (Nextclade) + S:R346T, S:F456L) end of wk 10, the impoverished Singapore Covid monitoring shows reduced ARI levels and reduced SARS2 ARI specimen positivity, when comparing wks 9 and 10.
If the FLiRT subvariants have the capacity to drive Rt over 1, this trend would be expected to turn in the coming weeks.