In Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals have dominated to different degrees in the past three elections, the government's major climate policy plank, carbon pricing, is a bust.
One thing, for certain, is that this is a "do or die" moment for the Liberals. Whether or not they can return to their baseline polling numbers is largely going to be reliant on how much the economy turns around in the next 12 months. Some of it is beyond their direct control; the Bank of Canada, at their own discretion, will adjust interest rates. Other items, like housing, they can make strides towards, but 12-18 months probably isn't enough time to make a serious dent in that problem.
They are losing the suburban vote, which will lose them the next election. To solve this, they need a series of short-term 'wins' that are targeted towards the middle class. The problem often is that they get lost in the top-line numbers when it comes to economic victories. That is, yes, inflation might have dipped down to 2.8 percent temporarily, but when groceries are still up 8 percent year-over-year, that doesn't feel like a win to the average suburban family. Yes, GDP went up over the last quarter, and the oil oligarchy is thankful for it. Unfortunately, that doesn't trickle down to a family of 5 in the GTA.
Getting lost in the 'big' numbers does them no favours. People don't look at the 2.8 percent and say, "Oh yeah, it feels like a 2.8 percent inflation month."
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