Portugal per the Global Warming models is expected to turn dryer and more arid, and yet is still heavilly dependent on hydro-generation (which is mainly there for historical reasons) and still has very little in the way of solar even though it has a lot of solar illumination without the same levels of heat (which reduces solar cell efficiency) as you would find on the other side of the Med.
So last year, which was a draught year, only 65% of generation was renewables, but once in a while you get enough rain to fill the dams, which together with the wind and few days of sun adds up to something like this or even like it happenned a few months ago that the country for 2 weeks was generating over 100% of its needs from renewables so was even exporting some of that power.
Whilst solar is growing, it’s slowly doing so in a country which has a lot of sun and were the regions which most lack water are also pretty much perfect for solar - flat, low-density tree cover (the so called Mediterranean forest), lots of sun - and one would expect solar in Portugal to be a lot more far along than it actually is.
All this to say that, as the draught last year and the year before made very clear, we need to pivot more into solar since mid and long term a lot of the hydro-generation in Portugal will stop being viable.
All true. A few problems facing increasing renewable penetration:
Lack of grid capacity. The national grid operator (REN) has stated there is not enough capacity currently, or in the planned grid expansions, to meet the countries renewable targets.
Rising opposition to projects. Many projects are facing strong local opposition, for example the the 1gw project in Santiago do Cacém which has seen strong resistance from local organisations set up to oppose it.
Environmental protections. They are important and needed, but Portugal has very strong laws here and it is a big obstacle to renewable development.
Cork trees. Cork trees are worshipped, its even difficult to clear sapplings that are of no value or importance. It makes large swathes of land uneconomical for renewable development.
Despite the above, which (except for cork trees) aren’t unique to portugal, the country is doing well. It will be interesting to see the stats in the coming dryer years, as you say.
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