30yrdscreamer,
@30yrdscreamer@mastodon.me.uk avatar

Feeling very optimistic about the game this afternoon.

My prediction

0-6

4
2

Joyful, fluid and free flowing football from the . A performance of such beauty that the video of the match wins the and is displayed in the next to the

hallenbeck,

@30yrdscreamer

Luton can make it quite tough to be that joyfully fluid. If you catch a early goal and make them come at you, it will be another story.

mlawton,
@mlawton@mstdn.social avatar

@hallenbeck @30yrdscreamer yes, it’s becoming the norm to see lower table teams trot out the low block, bunkering defense to try to frustrate and play for a draw or even hope to nip a surprise goal on an overextended counter.

A part of me knows that’s the right strategy for such a mismatched fixture, but also abhors it because it makes for ugly matches. Let the football be beautiful!

mike,
@mike@sauropods.win avatar

@mlawton @hallenbeck @30yrdscreamer To be fair, Luton were not dreary. They played as much actual football as they were able to. If Liverpool are going to drop points to lower teams, better it be to ambitious teams like Luton than to low-block merchants.

hallenbeck,

@mike
@mlawton @30yrdscreamer

Just watched the highlights.

Wow, got to hand it to Luton, their goal on the counter was a beauty. Needed some quality to pull that off. Thank you Luton. 🙇‍♂️😉

Diaz goal special too. ❤️

30yrdscreamer,
@30yrdscreamer@mastodon.me.uk avatar

@hallenbeck it was an excellent counter attack. Text book perfect.

mlawton,
@mlawton@mstdn.social avatar

@30yrdscreamer @hallenbeck lovely ball around Tsimikas, in terms of both timing and placement.

mike,
@mike@sauropods.win avatar

@mlawton @30yrdscreamer @hallenbeck All true. Yet I can't help but be frustrated that our players, during the crucial first phase of the counterattack, were all standing around appealing for the most tenuous of handballs.

30yrdscreamer,
@30yrdscreamer@mastodon.me.uk avatar

@mike I noticed that too. I don't like that flapping arms appeal stuff that players do - especially when it was not even close to being a handball.
Oh well, I'm putting it down to a bad day and hoping the team move on quickly.

mike,
@mike@sauropods.win avatar

@30yrdscreamer Agreed.

mlawton,
@mlawton@mstdn.social avatar

@mike @30yrdscreamer I agreed with a no call for a PK, but was hoping for a disallowed goal as well because the ball was handled, inadvertently, in the buildup to a goal. Then I remembered they removed that part of the rule… 💔

I don’t think of Liverpool as one of those teams constantly lobbying for calls, but maybe I’m too partisan. In that moment, they all did, which I think illustrates how well Lutron frustrated them. A glimpse of escape.

30yrdscreamer,
@30yrdscreamer@mastodon.me.uk avatar

@mlawton agreed. It's hard to be objective when you're invested emotionally in a team.

mike,
@mike@sauropods.win avatar

@mlawton @30yrdscreamer @hallenbeck … and it's infuriating to see (as per MOTD2) that Liverpool accumulated more then 3 xG but only put one goal away.

But none of that is to take away from Luton's performance.

hallenbeck,

@mike

The xG thing must be even more infuriating for Chelsea right now.

https://mastodon.online/@hallenbeck/111363467763772103

@mlawton @30yrdscreamer

mike,
@mike@sauropods.win avatar

@hallenbeck @mlawton @30yrdscreamer Yes, that's pretty crazy. Honestly, I'd not have guessed it of them; they've not looked good at all in the fragments I've seen this season.

30yrdscreamer,
@30yrdscreamer@mastodon.me.uk avatar

@mike @hallenbeck

Excuse my ignorance here, but if a team has a high xG and low number of goals doesn't that mean they're just rubbish at scoring?

mike,
@mike@sauropods.win avatar

@30yrdscreamer @hallenbeck Yes; or that it's run into goalkeepers in a good patch.

I wish we saw post-shot xG more often.

hallenbeck,

@mike

You can look on FBref match logs for the PSxG (how good the shot is - closer to 1 the more "quality" and unsavable the shot; also called xGOT on Sofascore). So you need to look at that really.

Also, Son is ridiculously good at digging out goals from low xG chances. He consistently overperforms. Which sounds good, but not ideal to be too dependent on.

I did the attached recently to explore Son's xG-breaking skills.

@30yrdscreamer

hallenbeck,
mlawton,
@mlawton@mstdn.social avatar

@hallenbeck @mike @30yrdscreamer Son is an incredible finisher, over a variety of distances too. xG can argue luck in small datasets, like an individual game, but when a player is consistently overperforming or underperforming xG, it illustrates overall quality.

A frustrating aspect of Liverpool’s season is they don’t allow much xG, perhaps have the best keeper in the world, and still manage to concede to teams that generate very few chances.

30yrdscreamer,
@30yrdscreamer@mastodon.me.uk avatar

@mlawton 💯. I've noticed though, that this new midfield are trying to pass through the low block in really tight spaces, especially on the edge/just inside the penalty area. The old midfield seemed more comfortable trying to loft or cross balls in.

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