My profile has a link to my Matrix account - though I guess it doesn’t help knowing that if Lemmy is down and you can’t get to my profile page. In the past though, the Lemmy.nz Matrix chat has been a good place to mention it. It’s not as active as it used to be but I still get notifications of messages sent in there and others can comment on if it’s working for them.
We have actually had some further downtimes of less than an hour each since this post, I’m still trying to narrow down the cause but I have a theory about what might be causing it.
That makes sense. It’s tricky with any survey data really. Over time the helpful question to be asking changes, so you can’t really compare points that are far apart in time.
‘Jobseeker’ rolled up all the old benefits into one, so there are people with disabilities who can’t work at all counted in those figures.
Yeah this is the benefit confusion I alluded to, and I was wondering if this was the case. I think things like what I think was called the Sickness Benefit is now part of the Jobseeker support benefit, despite having no requirement to look for work.
The underutilisation rate is arguably a better measure, as it includes unemployed but also people who want more work but can’t find it.
Digging into this, the unemployment rate went from 3.4% to 4.3% between March 2023 and March 2024.
The article is pretty thorough and I think shows that this isn’t exactly some crazy unheard of thing.
At a glance it seems this graph of NZer arrivals in Australia is not unexpected. I’m not convinced the COVID hole is even filled yet? As in all the people that would have moved to Australia but couldn’t because of COVID. Based on this graph it looks like they wouldn’t have all made it across yet.
But the article doesn’t say 26k public service workers, it says 26k people total. So the 26k forecast must surely include flow on impacts of the 4k+ public service jobs lost?
I don’t know. Usually mass layoffs have carry over to the rest of the economy. All the businesses serving those government employees are probably also going to downsize somewhat. Some may even go out of business who knows.
But if these are in addition to the 26k, then the 26k wouldn’t be the peak?
Most likely not everybody who is unemployed is getting a benefit so the number unemployed should be higher than those seeking jobseeker benefits.
The article says in March 134k people are unemployed and 187k people are on the Jobseeker benefit.
Note that “unemployed” isn’t everyone who doesn’t have a job, you have to be looking for work to be considered. So for example, you generally don’t count a stay-at-home Dad whose partner works to support the family.
March quarter data from Stats NZ showed an increase in the unemployment rate, from 4 percent in December to 4.3 percent. It said 134,000 people were now unemployed.
If 134k is 4.3% then 4% is about 125k people. So 9k people lost their jobs since December and another 26k to go?
Is this the difference in roles or the total redundancies (a certain percentage of people made redundant will go into a new role, some of which would not have had someone in it before)?
Maybe they expect a peak of about 150k people unemployed?
Sounds like they expect it to peak at about 4.8% if my maths is right? Historically, that’s still pretty low.
He said the number of people on the JobSeeker benefit had been trending higher since the start of 2023. In March there were 187,986 people receiving this benefit, up from 131,721 in March 2019 and 168,498 last year.
I get lost with the new benefits. Are the 187k people on Jobseeker not all considered “unemployed”? Is this a case of some people with part time work (underemployed) being counted in one but not the other?
So Aussie.zone is over a week behind for content coming from Lemmy.world, so it makes sense that the Lemmy.world comment took a long time to show up in the Aussie.zone community. In fact, Aussie.zone has passed the 7 day threshold where Lemmy culls the old activities, so a bunch of Lemmy.world content will never make it to Aussie.zone now (it’s technically possibly to roll back and replay the activities, but unless something changes very soon that probably won’t be practical).
The second one is more interesting. In the last week, Aussie.zone has got all content from Lemmy.ca within seconds. Lemmy.ca has got all content from lemmy.world within minutes. So it seems it should have come across straight away. I have no answer for that one! (other than lemmy is still new and very buggy)