The real losers are the low-income economies that must contend with the worst of both the old world and the new. Lacking middle-income countries’ domestic savings rates, capital markets and foreign-exchange reserves, they are simultaneously reliant on foreign capital flows for investment and less insulated from their sudden reversals. Lacking economic heft, they are more vulnerable to being forced to choose a geopolitical side, restricting their access to funding. The dilemma has become familiar to such countries, and nowhere more than in the next arena of change for the global financial system: payments.
The economic reality of what Britain outside the EU looks like and the global geopolitical realignment that has happened since that day in 2016 - Russia's warmongering in our European neighbourhood and the very real prospect of a future Republican president (if not Trump this November, then someone else 4 or 8 years later) abandoning NATO - obviously should lead (and is leading) to people who voted for Brexit rethinking Britain's relationship with the EU.
I don't think Starmer is stupid but I think Labour's large polling lead has - paradoxically - encouraged him to be very politically timid, to the detriment of his party and the country.
Broadly speaking the Labour leadership seems to be acting as if, if literally nothing changes between now and election day, then Labour will win a landslide. That means no genuine big new policy announcements, because any policy change is seen as a roll of the dice that could change the polling status quo. Rejoining the single market whilst staying outside the EU could be a popular policy - polling shows that even Labour Leave voters support it by a 53% to 31% margin - and would give an incoming Labour government an actual policy option to help turn around the economy, but Starmer's caution means forgoing this in favour of saying literally nothing novel. The Labour leadership think any change is a risk, and why take a risk when you're already sitting on a polling lead.
In general I'm favourable towards Starmer, and certainly in comparison to what came immediately before him. But on several issues - Europe, electoral reform, Gaza/Israel - he's adopting bad cautious positions to protect the enormous polling lead over the Tories he's stumbled into. These are going to end up doing him more harm than good in the long run.
The movement of capital globally is in decline (www.economist.com)
Geopolitics is altering its trajectory
Rishi Sunak admits Tories may not win general election | ITV News (www.itv.com)