neuralreckoning,
@neuralreckoning@neuromatch.social avatar

Thought about hypothesis testing as an approach to doing science. Not sure if new, would be interested if it's already been discussed. Basically, hypothesis testing is inefficient because you can only get 1 bit of information per experiment at most.

In practice, much less on average. If the hypothesis is not rejected you get close to 0 bits, and if it is rejected it's not even 1 bit because there's a chance the experiment is wrong.

One way to think about this is error signals. In machine learning we do much better if we can have a gradient than just a correct/false signal. How do you design science to maximise the information content of the error signal?

In modelling I think you can partly do that by conducting detailed parameters sweeps and model comparisons. More generally, I think you want to maximise the gain in "understanding" the model behaviour, in some sense.

This is very different to using a model to fit existing data (0 bits per study) or make a prediction (at most 1 bit per model+experiment). I think it might be more compatible with thinking of modelling as conceptual play.

I feel like both experimentalists and modellers do this when given the freedom to do so, but when they impose a particular philosophy of hypothesis testing on each other (grant and publication review), this gets lost.

Incidentally this is also exactly the problem with our traditional publication system that only gives you 1 bit of information about a paper (that it was accepted), rather than giving a richer, open system of peer feedback.

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