a vote for a third party is a vote for a third party. They count the votes for the person who you voted for. That’s literally how voting works. Read a book.
i’m going to copy/paste this to the only 2 comments this thread is getting:
if you look at the up/down votes the last half dozen biden/gaza threads on the fediverse over 100, you’ll see that there’s nearly 2:1 votes in favor of biden perpetuation genocide.
the fediverse was started by tankies and is, arguably, the most left leaning social media platform out there and even here, moderates dominate the conversation.
add to that the fact that the democratic party is successfully using abortion to get votes and rfk jr is a much bigger threat to trump than biden; it’s pretty clear that biden will win not matter what.
i’ll leave this quote from mlk jir because it helps me accept this thing that i cannot change:
I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro’s great stumbling block in the stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen’s Council-er or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate who is more devoted to “order” than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says “I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I can’t agree with your methods of direct action;” who paternalistically feels he can set the timetable for another man’s freedom; who lives by the myth of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait until a “more convenient season.”
Shallow understanding from people of goodwill is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.
I think the quote about the “white liberal” more interested in the negative peace of order is incredibly salient. I’ve been thinking very very deeply about this quote over the last several months.
add to that the fact that the democratic party is successfully using abortion to get votes and rfk jr is a much bigger threat to trump than biden; it’s pretty clear that biden will win not matter what.
I appreciate your optimism but I think this is less certain than you make it out to be. I think you need to take these assumptions to the electoral college map and actually game it out. Specifically, without pivoting on Gaza, I argue that Biden has lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. They demonstrated their willingness to step back from Biden, and Biden has only gotten worse since then. He held onto those states by a shoestring in 2020.
Thats 35 electoral votes. So where does Biden make those up on abortion rights? What states does Biden flip into his favor. Florida? (yea fucking right) Texas? (blue as my balls waiting for this state to turn purple).
Like show me on a map where these electoral college votes that Biden has gained are coming from and we can have that conversation. Otherwise, you don’t actually have an argument because the popular vote is irrelevant, and whining about winning the popular vote while losing the electoral college isn’t an argument either.
My read of the electoral college map is that we’re basically locked into the state it was in for 2016 and 2020. I don’t see anything fundamentally different going into 2024. So the question becomes, what states flip from 2020?
Like show me on a map where these electoral college votes that Biden has gained are coming from and we can have that conversation. Otherwise, you don’t actually have an argument because the popular vote is irrelevant, and whining about winning the popular vote while losing the electoral college isn’t an argument either.
the argument comes from midterm election results where red safety states went blue when they were bombarded with pro-abortion political adds. this article from npr goes into a deeper dive and also has a link to the exit poll results from those midterm elections: npr.org/…/abortion-democrats-independents-republi…
additionally: presidential elections also usually go blue so a popular vote win is also likely for biden. (this is so well known that some red states like texas hold their gubernatorial elections on off presidential year elections to avoid this phenomenon).
finally: my goal wasn’t to spread optimism; i was trying to share something that helps give me peace with our situation with someone who has expressed the same concern i’ve been having in a thread that the fediverse is trying to now trying to ignore.
wisconsin’s pro-republican gerrymandering is gone; presidential term elections almost always go more blue and will influence the outcome as it did in the last presidential election; and rfk jr. is around to soak up the rest.
Bullshit. Don’t blame voters for Biden risking handing the forever keys to the country to the fucking Nazis just to protect a genocide. Some people have actual principles and if one of those principles is to not vote for a guy that arms and funds a genocide, don’t you fucking dare blaming them. This is on Biden and his handlers thinking it was a jolly fine strategy trying to manufacture enough consent for a genocide among Democrats and Independents to win an election. The obvious weak link is that genocide is a bit of a hard sell to non fascists, in case you didn’t realize.
Many democrats and independents will still do their duty and vote for Biden, but many simply can’t or won’t vote for a pro genocide politician even if the alternative is so much worse. Some things simply can’t stand and consequences be damned, you know? Conservatives feel that shit over stuff like trans people needing to use the bathroom and naughty books, but genocide is one of those things that can make even a Democrat put their foot down. I mean, who could have figured the woke brigade was against genocide? Camp Biden surely didn’t.
To summarize, Biden shot a big gaping hole in his own foot and you are blaming the voters for his almost inevitable loss in the upcoming foot race? Is that about right? I can almost see him aiming at the other foot right now, thinking more speed holes will give him an edge.
All the way through I have been saying "we need to hold Biden's heels to the fire, not be sending the message that his fascist tactics are working."
"BuT tRuMp!!!"
Now Trump wins because liberals are disenfranchised and what's worse, I predict that will only drive the DNC deeper into fascism.
They rigged Bernie out, and doubled down on the fascism then.
This cycle, there isnt even a viable candidate that they are suppressing, and they are tripling down on the fascism.
Biden has already lost, and Progressives are more likely to team up with him (Edit: By him, I meant Trump, not Biden. They have become the same Party with a little bit but not much disagreement over abortion) than to resist him.
The thing that I have found shuts the "you only have 2 choices!" and "BuT tRuMp!!!" people up is to remind them that as of March 2023, 49% of Americans are registered Independent.
Democrats and Republicans have 25% of the country each.
Since the liberal party went "progressive", dove head first into fascism, censorship, domestic spying, etc, that 49% has all but assuredly risen, and the number for Democrats has lowered.
"A third party candidate isnt viable!" is absolute unfettered horse shit.
The American people are making their will decisively known using the election system, we are just allowing them to smother out any non-Party movement.
I dont think Bernie could win it anymore though. A) He has just gotten too old. B) He had 2 shots, and the DNC murdered any reputation he had that he could win. C) He clearly simply just doesn't want it anymore.
We need Citizens United overturned to get money back out of politics so a candidate from the overwhelmingly majority political group, Independents, can have a candidate with their political affiliation printed on the ballot.
We are never going to get them to give up that power though.
As far as I can tell, America is just fucked and all we can do is brace for when the fascism is literally at our front door and the majority of America becomes the "rebel insurgent" according to the fascist DC agenda (which really already started with Occupy Wallstreet when 'peaceful protesters' were added to the list of DHS domestic terrorist organizations).
Edit: Every time I google the "how many Americans are registered independent", the set of links I saw last time have been delisted and there is a new set of figures. The range I have been reliably seeing is 42-49% independent. Including my link this time.
i’m going to copy/paste this to the only 2 comments this thread is getting:
if you look at the up/down votes the last half dozen biden/gaza threads on the fediverse over 100, you’ll see that there’s nearly 2:1 votes in favor of biden perpetuation genocide.
the fediverse was started by tankies and is, arguably, the most left leaning social media platform out there and even here, moderates dominate the conversation.
add to that the fact that the democratic party is successfully using abortion to get votes and rfk jr is a much bigger threat to trump than biden; it’s pretty clear that biden will win not matter what.
i’ll leave this quote from mlk jir because it helps me accept this thing that i cannot change:
I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro’s great stumbling block in the stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen’s Council-er or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate who is more devoted to “order” than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says “I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I can’t agree with your methods of direct action;” who paternalistically feels he can set the timetable for another man’s freedom; who lives by the myth of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait until a “more convenient season.”
Shallow understanding from people of goodwill is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.
Yeah it’s pretty disturbing. But I definitely disagree with you that Biden is for sure going to win. Looking at polls and just in general how apathetic people are about these candidates I don’t see how you can think that a Biden second term is a sure thing by any stretch of the imagination.
I keep harping on this point, if Progressives put in the effort of being a persistent voting bloc, democratic politicians would be a lot more scared of the possibility of being primaried than they are of the possibility that progressives yet again will need to be reminded how the math works on them not voting or voting third party out of spite.
This is literally how the far right captured the republican party. I sign my name in Arabic, 30 years ago that would have been an easy guess that I voted republican, along with most Latine and Asian folks. Persistent electoral projection is how the right took the party that marketed itself as the big tent for all traditional values in america and turned it into the Racist Chrisnats we deal with at present. Had the left put in the same effort over the same period of time, Bernie would be considered a party establishment leader.
Young voters don't vote as much as other demographics, but they definitely do vote. I think it was 40% turnout in 2016, but don't quote me on it. Anyway that 40% is definitely disproportionately republican, but there's a good number of democrats there. The idea that the Democrats have nothing to lose by antagonizing young people is wrong.
I keep harping on this point, if Progressives put in the effort of being a persistent voting bloc, democratic politicians would be a lot more scared of the possibility of being primaried than they are of the possibility that progressives yet again will need to be reminded how the math works on them not voting or voting third party out of spite.
voter suppression and gerrymandering; coupled with moderates’ lack of interest; have guaranteed that there will never be a reliable progressive voting bloc.
latinos, as a whole, have always favored democratic candidates and have been trending towards republicans in the last 3 decades; but are still solidly democratic voters. however, that ratio of democrat to republican favorability changes drastically when you focus on the specific origin of each latino group.
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