Ignoring the “China Bad!” angle, reduction of aerosols is actually a pretty scary possible vector for rapid warming. If there was some kind of catastrophe that shut down most smoke stacks and global shipping then the sulfur particulates would precipitate out of the atmosphere, causing the temperatures to jump from between half a degree to one degree. We saw some of this during COVID shutdowns, and those were only ever partial.
I recall reading about that. I’m becoming increasingly convinced that we will end up having to do some sort of geoengineering like seeding reflective particles in the atmosphere going forward. That will of course create its own risks and unintended consequences.
We’ll absolutely need to do geoengineering, and that’ll probably be a flashpoint for global conflict. Sulfates in the atmosphere increase albedo and cloud formation, but they also acidify the rain when they precipitate back out of the atmosphere. There’s so many little balancing acts like that all over our environment and it’ll require global central planning… somehow.
This is where China gives me hope, if anybody can take leadership on such a huge project it’s China with their demonstrated ability to deliver huge engineering miracles. I do think we’re going to be in for a rough time, but I do remain optimistic that humanity will come through in the end, and the whole capitalist ideology will be forever discredited when the dust settles.
This is where I see a potential flashpoint for global conflict. The United States will do everything in its power to oppose and destabilize China as it emerges as a global leader, even as the US itself declines due to its inability to adapt to climate change.
That’s my read on the situation as well. I imagine anybody who’s spent any time trying to understand what’s happening is quite worried at this point, but at the end of the day all we can do is watch and hope for the best. The comic incompetence that’s been on display by the US regime over the past two years is a big cause of optimism as well. I firmly believe that Chinese leadership can effectively plan around whatever schemes these clowns come up with going forward.
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