The latest Talbot Mills poll has news for folks who called #Election2023 for the NatACTs based on the last couple of polls. Labour are now only 2% below the Nats, Greens have pulled ahead of ACT by 1%, and TPM are on 4%. On these numbers, the only way the NatACTs could get a majority is with Winston First, who ACT have ruled out working with, even if the Nats haven't.
Other than NZ First getting back in, this election is too close to call.
This is the last time I will comment on 2023 election polls. They don't matter nearly as much as the news media seem to think. What matters is policy.
Poll focused coverage turns elections into a horse race between 2 "blocks", as if we're still running elections under FPP. We're not. Thanks to MMP, our elections are no longer a mostly pointless choice between Tweedledee and Tweedledum. They're a choice among many competing visions for the country's future, and policies to support them.
"It's OK to report on the optics of politics, but it shouldn't come at the expense of reporting on substance, and newsrooms need to make sure they're getting the balance right."
#DanielBrunskill, politics and economics reporter, Interest.co.nz
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