@Andy_Scollick@mastodon.green
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Andy_Scollick

@Andy_Scollick@mastodon.green

Policy adviser | Interactions between #climate change, the #energy transition, #security and #defence | PhD in sustainability science, complex adaptive systems and maritime governance | Born at 320 ppm CO2 | “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and bear with equanimity whatever may happen” (Marcus Tullius Cicero 46BC)

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Andy_Scollick, to random
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Maybe something positive from in this year as the organisers come to realise that climate change, peace and war are interlinked. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/05/cop29-summit-to-call-for-peace-between-warring-states-says-host-azerbaijan

Andy_Scollick, to random
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Climate model-observation discrepancies and regional climate change https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1391634/full

Andy_Scollick, to climate
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A former Australian Defence Force chief says the federal government either doesn't understand or is hiding from the public the risk of change to national .

Admiral Chris Barrie says mass migration, food insecurity and other climate risks must be addressed by government and . https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-02/national-defence-strategy-ignored-climate-risks/103789018

Andy_Scollick, to random
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Average incomes will fall by almost a fifth within the next 26 years as a result of the climate crisis, according to a study that predicts the costs of damage will be six times higher than the price of limiting global heating to 2C. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/17/climate-crisis-average-world-incomes-to-drop-by-nearly-a-fifth-by-2050

Andy_Scollick, to random
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Global operating coal capacity grew by 2% in 2023, with China driving two- thirds of new additions, and a small uptick was seen for the first time since 2019 in the rest of the world, according to Global Energy Monitor's annual survey of the global coal fleet. https://globalenergymonitor.org/report/boom-and-bust-coal-2024/

Andy_Scollick, to climate
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Our species, which ought to be named Homo suicidensis, excels when it comes to self-harm. We seem determined to drive ourselves toward the abyss and throw ourselves in. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/11/worlds-coal-power-capacity-rises-despite-climate-warnings

Andy_Scollick, to random
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It's only just beginning. By the time we have reached net zero (if we ever do?) it will be much worse. And no state or its military is prepared for that. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/04/schools-close-and-crops-wither-as-historic-heatwave-hits-south-east-asia

Andy_Scollick, to random
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Global CO2 emissions for 2023 increased by only 0.1% relative to 2022. These 2023 emissions consumed 10–66.7% of the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C, suggesting permissible emissions could be depleted within 0.5–6 years (67% likelihood). https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-024-00532-2

Andy_Scollick,
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@tom_andraszek @dan613 @GreenFire Tom, your analogy doesn't really apply in the climate system's case: if we apply sulphate aerosols in the troposphere we cause ill health and kill people. If we apply them in the stratosphere in the massive quantities required to make a difference we cannot control how much of whose croplands we dim, potentially reducing yields, causing hunger, threatening national security. If China was on receiving end, it could see it as an existential attack. ...

Andy_Scollick,
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@tom_andraszek @dan613 @GreenFire ... Or the US, India, whoever. There would be nothing secret about SAI programmes: they require large tanker fleets (ca. 4,000 aircraft) flying 24/7/365 to sustain an aerosol shield. The potential to reduce regional crop yields, even cause crop failures is a very real risk. There's also "termination shock" if a SAI programme ceases due to political and economic change of circumstances (think another Trump or X-SAI going bust) or war. So how do we avoid all this?

Andy_Scollick,
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@tom_andraszek @dan613 @GreenFire The first answer, of course, is to decisively, comprehensively and rapidly phase out fossil fuels, and reduce emissions from other sectors. That's what we need to do anyway (plus remember termination shock?). The second thing is address the geopolitical vacuum by negotiating and agreeing a global governance framework for climate engineering. But look around: rising geopolitical and economic competition, conflicts, declining democracy.. That's the reality.

Andy_Scollick,
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@tom_andraszek @dan613 @GreenFire From a security and defence perspective there is currently a much higher probability of "weaponisation" of stratospheric aerosol injection and other SRM approaches than there is of establishing a global governance framework for 'safe' geoengineering. Putin, Xi, Trump etc won't be around forever. But the regimes they will leave in place could last the remainder of this century. By which time it will be far too late. Better to focus effort on emergency mitigation.

Andy_Scollick,
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@tom_andraszek @dan613 @GreenFire Apologies for the geoengineering sidetrack I went off on there! Guess what I'm up to my neck in writing briefings about at the moment?! 😂 😉

Andy_Scollick,
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@tom_andraszek @dan613 @GreenFire Smith and Wagner (2018) calculated costs of ∼$1,500 per ton of sulphate aerosols deployed, resulting in average costs of ∼$2.25 billion per year over the first 15 years of a deployment programme. Also, the number of tanker flights at ∼4,000 in year one, linearly increasing by ∼4,000 per year over the subsequent 14 years. They consider this cheap. No doubt it can be accomplished by fleet of ~100 Stratotankers.

1/3

Andy_Scollick,
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@tom_andraszek @dan613 @GreenFire
Global dimming does have an impact on crop productivity. The paper by Shao et al (2021) is rather technical, but the general gist is that there is significant uncertainty and further research must be done to assess potential impacts on crops prior to SRM/SAI experiments let alone deployments.

2/3

Andy_Scollick,
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@tom_andraszek @dan613 @GreenFire Tom, your analogy is interesting - when one factors in antibiotic resistance and the potential of that groups of medicines to actually kill more people worldwide than they save (an known risk)

If a SAI programme ceases and no one continues: that's the problem

Your asking permission point underlines my points that in the 21st century geopolitical reality, it risks conflict, potentially on a large scale

Adaptation must accompany mitigation: not false promises

Andy_Scollick,
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@tom_andraszek @GreenFire @dan613 You'll find as many who contradict as there are who corroborate. The whole point about climate engineering (as in SRM, SAI etc) is that it is highly uncertain. We have the effects of acidic volcanic eruptions (sulphate aerosol injections). We have very small-scale experiments. And a whole lot of uncertainty in between. Guesswork in the absence of a global governance framework is NOT a rational, acceptable way to proceed. The risks are massive.

Andy_Scollick, to random
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Our species, which ought to be relabelled Homo suicidensis, continues to destroy its own life-support systems. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/04/global-deforestation-rainforest-climate-goals-brazil-colombia-agriculture

Andy_Scollick, to random
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There is no national security and collective security without and climate security And no energy security and climate security without global renewable energy saturation. Relying on fossil gas is increasing global heating. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/04/is-europes-energy-crisis-over-falling-gas-prices-conceal-wider-problems

Andy_Scollick, to random
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We blame the CEOs and investors. But we rarely blame the workers of these "Carbon Majors" or ourselves for continuing to buy their climate-breaking products. Regardless, we continue to accumulate CO2 in the atmosphere. We will pass 2°C https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/04/just-57-companies-linked-to-80-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions-since-2016

Andy_Scollick, to random
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".. in Ireland, where there is a lot of annual rainfall, we are limited in how much water we can take from the environment.

The main reason of course is our lack of water infrastructure and a dire need for public investment in new water supplies." https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2024/0404/1441585-water-supply/

Andy_Scollick, to random
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Is China modifying the weather? India has concerns

As weather has historically been used as a weapon in warfare, India must assess the geopolitical and strategic implications of China’s growing weather modification activities https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/is-china-modifying-the-weather-india-has-concerns

Andy_Scollick, to random
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"Yet none of these military officials or political leaders have mentioned the elephant in the room: the biggest likely flashpoint for war with Russia is climate change." https://www.euractiv.com/section/arctic-agenda/opinion/wests-coming-war-with-russia-will-be-triggered-by-arctic-climate-breakdown/

Andy_Scollick, to random
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The global extraction of raw materials is expected to increase by 60% by 2060, with calamitous consequences for the climate and the environment, according an unpublished UN analysis. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/31/raw-materials-extraction-2060-un-report

Andy_Scollick, to random
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Shame on Norway 🇳🇴😠 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/09/norway-set-to-approve-deep-sea-mining-despite-environmental-concerns

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