I'm always wary of the results of any single poll. The numbers bounce around all over the show week by week, and the media laps it up and writes some narrative to explain the change.
I like the graphs they have on the NZ polling Wikipedia page. You can see how much each individual poll bounces around, but they smooth it to make the results more meaningful. They're only updating them about once a month at the moment, so these are from the end of May:
Agreed. The only sensible reading of the polls since mid-22 is that it's damn close. Ardern resigning didn't really impact the polls as much as people make out.
My suspicion is that Labour will run a better campaign than National (especially under Luxon), but that's just pure speculation.
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