Don’t fool yourself, Trump is doing well in the polls
Not to discount your point, but polls generally consist of people who answer the phone from unknown callers and have he patience to put up with the people running the poll. That's not going to be a representative sample of public opinion.
Also, trump is looking forward to 4 court cases that are going to be running during the campaign season, so that's going to fuck his numbers more than they already are. He cannot win without independent voters, and the constant news of his overt and stupid crimes isn't going to win over independents.
WadeTheWizard