So do you agree with the idea that Milei’s austerity measures will work in the long run?
Probably not. The politics won’t allow for it: everyone’s thinking is short term and nobody cares about 10 years down the line. He will be blocked and sabotaged and removed before this gets to play out. Then the money printer will go brrrrrrrrrrrr
If it’s allowed to stick, then yes, it should work in the long term, with some short to medium term pain. It’s not impossible but it seems unlikely to work out that way. Maybe enough Argentinans with a long memory and basic math skills will allow it to happen. But don’t count on it.
Similar to how an addict has to get off the drugs: hurts in the short term something fierce, then it gets better over time. Except here the drug is free money. Of course, many don’t make it.
If you do, is there historical precedent to guide that belief?
Every fiat currency has eventually failed. Going right back the Romans and probably before that. When the greedy idiots in charge learn they can print money seemingly without consequence, then they will print.