Somehow you take one fact, “US officials thought Ukraine was going to fall within…” and explain that that fact makes you sure about something unrelated.
First of all, as far as I remember we all drew the conclusion that Ukraine would fall within weeks. No one could imagine Ukraine was going to be able to shoot down planes transporting troops (a fact later challenged because of lack of proof) within the first days. Add to this how badly Russia performed. No one, no one, saw that coming from what we all thought was one of three military superpowers. We all had to change the world ranking on the fly when we saw, the now infamous, Russian Kyiv convoy unfold. You know, the one that essentially was fully exposed to Ukrainian attacks because logistical problems. No one predicted any of the noob shit Russia has been doing during the aggression.
So who do you mean saw all this coming before it happened in early 2022?
Yes, both things are about Ukraine but one is military intelligence and the other is a political strategy.
Your opinions on the matter are totally okay, it’s a good ground for a healthy debate, but opinions are not facts.