fukhueson

fukhueson, 5 days ago

We find that all four measures of typical and aggregate pay, adjusted by PCE, have grown since 2019. When deflating using CPI, we find smaller increases across three of the four measures and a decline in one measure. In other words, nominal pay by these measures has done relatively well in keeping up with overall costs of living since 2019, measured by PCE. Nominal pay has done somewhat less well in keeping up with increases in the costs of goods and services that are much more salient to consumers, measured by CPI. This pattern is consistent across time periods, with pay deflated by CPI experiencing smaller increases—or instead decreases—relative to pay deflated using PCE.

Further, using PCE inflation, there have been gains in real pay across measures relative to the fourth quarter of 2021. Since the fourth quarter of 2022, deflating by either inflation measure shows gains in real pay. Finally, since the fourth quarter of 2023, real pay grew as measured by Average Hourly Earnings, the Employment Cost Index (ECI), and Total Compensation as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts. Real pay as measured by Median Weekly Earnings fell sharply, reversing an almost equally sharp increase in the previous quarter.

fukhueson, 8 days ago

That is not really what this article is about, this is discussing creating conditions that could change dynamics in the region, and why strategically this would be beneficial. It cites the current hostage negotiation deal that is in the works but that is not exactly the focus.

There is some hope that negotiations in Egypt on a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas will finally be achieved and produce a cease-fire of at least six weeks. But the Biden administration must not put all its eggs in that basket. Again and again, Hamas has raised hopes that a deal is imminent only to dash them. Should no deal emerge in Egypt, the Biden administration should turn to the only realistic alternative: encouraging Israel to announce a unilateral cease-fire in Gaza of four to six weeks.

Such an Israeli decision may be the only way to create the conditions for an Israeli-Saudi normalization deal to advance. Of course, a unilateral cease-fire would be controversial in Israel, both because it de-links pausing the fighting in Gaza from the release of hostages and because it may seem to concede something to Hamas for nothing in return. But a unilateral cease-fire of four to six weeks would, in fact, offer Israel many strategic benefits with few material drawbacks. And in truth, if their negotiations with Hamas fail once again, Israeli leaders will need to adopt a different approach if they hope to get hostages released while some are still alive.

fukhueson, 8 days ago

The article describes a hypothetical of Israel unilaterally ceasing fighting, not asking Hamas if that’s ok. It goes on to describe why this could be strategically beneficial.