@m_clem@sciences.social
@m_clem@sciences.social avatar

m_clem

@m_clem@sciences.social

I'm an economist who studies the causes and effects of international migration. Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Also IZA Bonn, CReAM~UCL, and the Center for Global Development. Personal views exclusively.

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m_clem, to random
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Delighted to talk with Rachel Siegel of the Post as she brilliantly investigated the economic effects of proposals for mass deportation and exclusion

—> https://washingtonpost.com/business/2024/05/20/trump-immigration-undocumented-economy/

I summarize the research here—> https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trumps-proposed-mass-deportations-would-backfire-us-workers CC @piie

m_clem, to random
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Great meetings at the White House today. Evidence-based policy is possible. Wisdom makes it necessary.

m_clem, to random
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For economists —> What's a teaching example of a specific instance where new, rigorous evidence seemed inconsistent with simple textbook theory, prompting controversy on proposed extensions to the theory?

Analogous to Card+Krueger's evidence reviving debate on Robinson's monopsony theory. Other subfields?

m_clem, to random
@m_clem@sciences.social avatar

I've been working for a year to measure, for the first time, the effect of lawful crossings of the US Southwest border on unlawful crossings.

My study just came out at @piie —> https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2024/effect-lawful-crossing-unlawful-crossing-us-southwest-border

With a less technical summary —> https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/offering-more-lawful-pathways-us-border-crossings-reduces-unlawful

m_clem, to random
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I talked with CNN about how restrictions on hiring migrants for fundamental jobs are affecting US firms, such as in construction—>
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/21/business/construction-industry-needs-immigrant-workers/index.html

This is based on my research with Ethan Lewis summarized here—> https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/restricting-hiring-low-skill-immigrants-hurts-firms-and-does-not-benefit-native-born

m_clem, to random
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A good reason to believe that Putin would have lost a genuine election—if he had not murdered Navalny—is that he murdered Navalny.

m_clem, to Economics
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A top US presidential campaign has promised the largest mass deportation in US history, starting in 10 months

It promises this will bring more jobs and "better wages" to US workers

But past mass deportations had the opposite effect

Here's why—> https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trumps-proposed-mass-deportations-would-backfire-us-workers ~ @piie

m_clem, to random
@m_clem@sciences.social avatar

Extremist lies about immigrants are reckless, dangerous, and unacceptable.

Calling them "foreign enemies…turning the USA into a crime-ridden, disease-ridden dumping ground" in a "conspiracy to overthrow the United States of America" is garbage designed to inflame hatred.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-immigration-biden-gop-voters-border-migrants-1fc6624188f540f495e1087bee64318e

m_clem, to random
@m_clem@sciences.social avatar

The UN projects that the all-time maximum number of young children alive on earth…

…happened seven years ago.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-under-age-5 from @ourworldindata

m_clem, to random
@m_clem@sciences.social avatar

I'm not sure it is commonly known, as Jesús Fernández-Villaverde has estimated, that the world collectively has already fallen below replacement fertility.

(Current global TFR ~2.2, global-level replacement TFR ~2.25)

https://www.aei.org/multimedia/faster-please-the-podcast-29-the-economics-of-population-decline/

m_clem, to random
@m_clem@sciences.social avatar

Today I begin a 🧵 on new, striking immigration research.

Léa Marchal et al. meta-analyze 2,146 estimated effects of immigration on native wages. Average almost exactly zero, across skill levels.

Novel result: publication bias favors negative estimates.

https://leamarchal.fr/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/HDR_LM_Aubry_etal.pdf

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m_clem,
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The US earnings gap between third-generation Mexican-American men and non-Mexican whites is about half as large today as in 1940.

Prior estimates, lacking full-count census data, have missed this progress by missing the best-integrated Mexican Americans.

Kosack+Ward—> https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050720000480

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m_clem,
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Perceptions reign:

County-level unauthorized US immigration reduces native employment in migrant-intensive sectors, & shifts local expenditure from education to policing…

…but null effects on unemployment, wages, crime rates

Tiburcio+Camarena: https://ernestotiburcio.files.wordpress.com/2023/11/the-local-reaction-to-unauthorized-mexican-migration-to-the-us.pdf

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m_clem,
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Do ethnic enclaves prevent economic integration by new immigrants, or serve as a gateway to greater integration?

In Sweden 2000–2010, enclaves help—when residents are employed. Integration of earlier arrivals makes them an engine of new integration.

Kadarik et al.—> https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X21989702

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m_clem,
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When people with xenophobic beliefs perceive those beliefs as widespread, they are more likely to express xenophobia…

…but also: People who disagree with those beliefs are less likely to sanction expressions of xenophobia

By Bursztyn+Egorov+Fiorin —> https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20171175

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m_clem,
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Having forced migrants in your family or local community — generations ago — is correlated with pro-refugee attitudes and behaviors today, in Germany and Greece.

By Dinas, Fouka, & Schläpfer —> doi.org/10.1086/710016

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m_clem,
@m_clem@sciences.social avatar

Continuing 🧵 of new migration research:

In a novel randomized evaluation, standalone English-language training for adult immigrants in the US…

—Causes ↑ 56% in annual earnings (years 2–10)

—Has +6% ROI for public purse via ↑ tax revenue

By Heller+Slungaard Mumma—> http://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20210336

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m_clem,
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In fiscal 2023, the largest single nationality of migrant encountered at the US southwest border—apart from Mexicans—was Venezuelans.

Using Venezuelans' spatial settlement patterns, Gunadi tests and fails to detect impacts on native labor force outcomes, at any skill level—> https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12455

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m_clem,
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Greater exposure to foreign-born classmates causes ↑ native math+reading test scores, greatest ↑ for black students

Uses within household variation, full universe K–12 data from Florida 2002–2012

Forthcoming in REStud by Figlio et al.—>

https://www.nber.org/papers/w28596

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m_clem,
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In the Netherlands, natives 8% less likely to cooperate with a non-Western immigrant, in second stage of a trust game, if immigrant trusts the native

In other words, the returns to being trustworthy are lower for the immigrant

By Cettolin+Suetens in EJ—> https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12629

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m_clem,
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Immigration-driven increases in ethnic/occupational diversity—measured by surname diversity in full-universe census—caused ↑ innovation in US counties, 1850–1940

Not compositional: robust to surname FE

Simply meeting more people unlike oneself causes more new economic ideas measured as patents, including 'breakthrough' highly-cited patents

By my star GMU colleague Jonathan Schulz, +Posch & Henrich—>

https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4531209

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m_clem,
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Does immigration cause reduced support for social policy?

73 research teams—using identical data—reached vastly different estimates.

"Researchers must make analytical decisions so minute that they often do not even register as decisions."

Breznau et al.—> https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203150119

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m_clem,
@m_clem@sciences.social avatar

Continuing long 🧵 of new, striking research on —>

Refugees assigned to live in more hostile regions of Germany show accelerated assimilation culturally, but not economically. Consistent with extra effort + L market discrimination

By Tabellini et al.—> https://www.nber.org/papers/w30381

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m_clem,
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The effect of return migration on development in Mexico, using exogenous US state policy change

Causes improved income+labor+health+educational outcomes, highly robust

Forthcoming REStat by Bucheli+Fontenela: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01273

@voxdev.bsky.social summary: https://voxdev.org/topic/migration-urbanisation/coming-home-prosperity-how-return-migration-promotes-economic

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m_clem,
@m_clem@sciences.social avatar

@GhostOnTheHalfShell By this mechanism?—> https://www.dallasfed.org/research/swe/2023/swe2303

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