djr

djr, 11 days ago

The most recent seat projection - based on an average of recent published polls - gives #labour more than four hundred and eighty seats and has the #conservatives and #LibDems competing for the position of official opposition with sixty or seventy seats apiece. This raises the prospect of a change in the position of second party and thus alternative government for the first time in more than a century. #labour replaced the #liberals in that role in 1922.

djr, 11 days ago

At the same time a journalist reports finding #labour directing activists to around a hundred and seventy 'offensive' seats and a further eleven 'defensive' ones while there have been earlier reports that the #conservatives are concentrating on two hundred #conservative seats that they regard as at risk. The reported approach of the #conservatives suggests that they may be confident of holding roughly the same number of seats as they did in 1997.

djr, 11 days ago

The reported #labour approach is intriguing. Whereas it is understandable and prudent to concentrate on sufficient 'offensive' seats to be in line for an overall majority - and not spread activists too thinly in the process - the decision to focus also on a number of 'defensive' seats is noteworthy. The journalist who discovered this also found that all but one of the 'defensive' constituencies had a very large proportion of voters of #southasian background.

djr, 11 days ago

There has been evidence for some time that a portion of the #hindu community has shifted from #labour to the #conservatives - shown in the 2023 local elections in #leicester . Events since October 2023 are likely to have damaged relations between #muslims and #labour . #patmcfadden recognised this after the #LocalElections . So some people in #uklabour do understand the need to recover and retain the support of #muslim voters although the recent treatment of #faizashaheen runs counter to this!

djr, 9 days ago

The source that found that #uklabour was targeting over one hundred and seventy #conservative seats referred to #EnglandandWales only. Presumably somewhere between twenty and thirty #snp seats in #scotland are being targeted similarly. I hope this clarifies matters.

djr, 9 days ago

So the rough picture of the #ukge2024 is that both major parties are deploying activists to the #groundgame in about a third of the parliamentary constituencies in #greatbritain - but not necessarily the same third.

djr, 9 days ago

There is likely to be an overlapping group of a hundred and seventy seats in #EnglandandWales where both parties will be running a serious #groundgame - essentially where the #conservatives are defending against #labour . There will be at least ten seats where #labour will be defending its 'left flank' - a number that may need to increase as a result of events over the last few days. And as mentioned earlier twenty to thirty #snp seats which would be #labour targets.

djr, 9 days ago

The #conservatives will also have a #groundgame defending against the #LibDems in another thirty seats - the so-called #bluewall .

djr, 9 days ago

If one were to make the stylised assumption that any identified #groundgame was 50% effective that would leave the #conservatives with around two hundred and seventy seats and #labour with around two hundred and ninety seats - with the remaining sixty or so seats made up of twenty five #LibDems , about the same number from the #snp and the others making up the remainder.

djr, 9 days ago

Such a result would bear some similarity to the result of the first of the two #GeneralElections fifty years ago. That led to a #labour minority government followed by a second #GeneralElection within a few months.

djr, 9 days ago

#labour has traditionally been able to mount a more effective #groundgame than the #conservatives given the size and composition of its membership . If it were twice as effective then it would gain a further thirty seats from the #conservatives placing it very close to an absolute majority. This would not differ much from the result of the 1964 #GeneralElection .

djr, 9 days ago

Such results are not far away from the projections made early last month by #rallings and #thrasher following the #LocalElections . So some weight should be given to them.

djr, 9 days ago

It has been reported that those advising #RishiSunak take the #rallings and #thrasher projection very seriously.

djr, 9 days ago

I have to say that they - #rallings and #thrasher - performed very well with regard to the 2023 #LocalElections so the team round #RishiSunak may not just be indulging in wishful thinking - or at least not as much as some of those suffering from #hubristicincompetence on the #labour side!

djr, 9 days ago

I should add that should #dianeabbott be re-elected to the #houseofcommons - which now seems a near certainty - she will be its female member with the longest period of continuous membership and thus succeed #harrietharman as 'Mother of the House' . A much greater distinction than a peerage would have been!

djr, 17 days ago

@Sherifazuhur @palestine

#cambridge has once more outdone #Oxford ! On a related matter one of the parliamentary bills lost because of the #GeneralElection is the one #michaelgove introduced to prevent boycotts of goods from particular jurisdictions by #localauthorties .

djr, 17 days ago

@Sherifazuhur @palestine

#michaelgove is of course departing - having announced he will not be standing in the #GeneralElection . He has just experienced the further humiliation of seeing the money in the #sharedprosperityfund - which was supposed to be used for #LevellingUp - reallocated by #RishiSunak to pay for #nationalservice !

djr, 23 days ago

@impactology

Something very much remembered by #MargaretThatcher in the 1980s - which may help to explain why she ended #uk arms exports to #israel in 1982!

djr, 28 days ago

@glynmoody

To be fair it probably did less harm than what they sold lawfully to #india and #israel at the samer time!

djr, 28 days ago

@JapanProf @palestine

Even if #BenjaminNetanyahu may not be an extremist himself - the jury is out on that one! - his political survival depends on people like #ItamarBen_Gvir - who is the minister to whom those police report - and #BezalelSmotrich - who is doing his best - or worst if you prefer - to keep any humanitarian aid from going through the port of #ashdod . He cannot overrule them and stay in office - unlike #RishiSunak who was able to sack #SuellaBraverman and remain in office.

djr, 28 days ago

@glynmoody

These are #european bison rather than imports from the #us . Thirty years ago they were almost extinct - small populations in north east #romania and north east #poland They have since been introduced elsewhere - including the #netherlands and even the #english county of #kent - somewhere normally not at all keen on anything #european !

djr, 28 days ago

@ChrisMayLA6

Effectively the development of 'learned helplessness' at institutional level. In the end it gives the #uk the honest but wholly incompetent #DidoHarding - arguably even more of a problem that the traditional corrupt grifters!

djr, 29 days ago

@wjmaggos @Lassielmr @fkamiah17

A coup from either side ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled there for later this year would be wrong. Far better that the elections are scrutinised to ensure that they are free and fair. As someone who visited #georgia a score of years ago I can remember just how economically ruinous for #georgia the security policy of #russia in the #northcaucasus was. It destroyed the export trade in fresh fruit and vegetables to #russia #georgia had relied on .