On a low turnout (37.2%), Labour secured a 20% swing in tis favour to win the #Rutherglen#byelection beating the SNP by 58% to 27% of the vote... while the #Tories crashed to 3.9%.
And, now the reading of the runes can get under way....
@ChrisMayLA6 it is always a useful exercise to compare the election results with the previous election to see if the claims of seismic shift are justified?
Rutherglen 2019 Labour obtained 18,645 votes. Yesterday they obtained 17,845.
Tory vote 2019 was 8054. Yesterday 1192.
Lib Dem vote 2019 was 2791. Yesterday 895
Many factors at play anger at former MP, tactical voting, did SNP vote stay at home or switch? Too early to say but not the claimed seismic shift.
@ChrisMayLA6 Probably doesn't suggest a big enough swing to make Labour the largest party in Scotland. But I think twenty seats might be achievable at a push. 10-15 probably more likely.
The Ruth Davidson-era Scottish Tory revival is very likely dead now, though. I was reading something earlier that referred to SNP-Con marginals, and honestly, I'm not sure any of those seats should be considered marginal any more. Can see a 1997-esque wipeout of the Tories outside England.
@ChrisMayLA6 I assume CCHQ are now in full panic mode. The conference didn't go down that well outside of the hall, and the PMs great reset is unravelling with fact checking and closer scrutiny . With this result, any thoughts of the SNP keeping Labour numbers down are probably also out the window.
CVs set to update!
Concerns about Starmer relate to political positioning, not electoral appeal. The far Left would rather a #Braverman Tory regime than for a centre-left #Labour administration - they really are that barking.... (or is that "committed" ?)
I can only speak for myself - I voted #Labour - and kept my peace - in 2015, 2017 and 2019 whilst knowing they were screwing up
The last leader lost us 4 years by being totally useless at winning elections, and I am glad to see one in place who is on course to become PM - I could not care less what part of the Labouur spectrum he comes from - in general I would like left policies but know that it is not my preference that counts, it is millions of votes....
Well I do NOT recall that many #labour people at all made the kind of vitriolic posts about the previous leader that many on the left are making about the current one
But I rather doubt they are really Labour - sound more like anarchists & SWP types harking back to pre-war notions of a socialist nirvana
Still - most of what happens on social media stays on social media - I doubt they will make much impact
@jackLondon@ChrisMayLA6 I remember a lot of vitriol. I didn't weight it to compare with the now though. But as I said, the only skin I have in the game is the fact that Labour will fail Scotland (just a little bit less than the Tories). Private Eye's coverage (a selection attached) has been amusing.
Oh dull - that leaked report on internal dissent..... that is not the same as people posting hatred and lies on social media - and you know it
There is no equivalence between centre-left members treatment of the previous leader (mostly silent resignation) and the hate-speech from the far left about the current one
.... and internal fights within parties are the norm - they make little impact electorally when compared to the public pronouncements and the weaponisatio of them by the Tory press
Frankly I could not care less about what happens under the hood of a party.....
I just want the #toriesOut and get pissed off with those so far left that they would rather keep the Tories in power than accept that the UK will never ever elect a govt that adopts their politics
This "leaked report" had no impact in 2019 and will have no impact now... it is not even an independent report but is bleeding money from labour in endless court cases that should have been settled out of court
That is rather like saying - as you are wheeled to hospital after a mad driver (possibly a blonde liar too busy touching up his passenger, or a ethnic-minority neo-fascist blaming your luxury beliefs for everything bad she is doing to our politics) has hit you causing multiple compound fractures, that you are not looking forward to the surgeon operating......
There is little to look forward in the short term except the cessation of harm
@jackLondon
A false analogy. More like saying that the blond and all his apparatchiks need to be kept well away from the driving seat, preferably down a deep deep hole. But also suggesting that the half blind replacement who does not know much of the four countries he wishes to represent is a brilliant replacement. Our limbs will be detached one way or the other.
@jackLondon Certainly centrist and I have a lot of sympathy with that - despite the moanings of many it is where much of the British population lie. I can also see the damned if he does damned if he does not poroblem, expcially with the British popular press (and the BBC).
But he is an unthinking (well probably calculated) Unionist - and probably thinks that Nandy's approach to the union - send in the police and the army no doubt bey extension is the best way to deal with an errant ‘region’.
Well I agree - he is very much a Unionist. And I sympathise with Scots not totally convinced they want to remain part of the little England Empire
But the matter is in the hands of your own people - get over 50% voting in #Scotland for the #SNP plus #green party and you have a mandate for #indyRef2
Cannot see it happening though in the next few years - can you?
However, no one in the SNP was prepared to make the case on that basis, so we lost an opportunity. Although, in my opinion, #ScottishIndependence on a 51% vote would be as unsatisfactory as #Brexit on 52%.
You answer your own point...but given indyRef was in 2014 no UK govt woudl have accepted the argument so soon after
#montenegro got independence from #serbia on a 55.5% vote in 2006 - just scraping over a 55% threshold. But that was in the aftermath of a civil war. It is actually much harder in peacetime - but the Czechs and Slovaks managed
I think the chance was missed in 2014 and it will take a bit longer to build support - Sturgeon tried to force it & failed
@ChrisMayLA6 Blimey, it's worse for the SNP than I thought. I saw some exit polls before I went to bed that Lab were at +11.
I'm actually pretty annoyed about it. Starmer came out with some woeful bullshit yesterday and he has one of those faces that looks like it's crowing even when he's pretending he isn't.
@ChrisMayLA6 He's not even in charge yet. People should be getting, well, not excited, but anticipating a sense of relief, maybe? It's just a lower level of dread and tedium with him. And he's got another year, potentially, to go. Imagine how heartily sick of him we'll all be by then.
Well, there's an argument that in the face of the nut-jobs shouting & going doo-lalay on the other side, 'tedium' may be his super-power.... not a view I'd subscribe to, but not without its supporters!
@ChrisMayLA6 That may have been believable when paired against Boris Johnson, but I saw them (Sunak and Starmer) described as "two briefcase nerds" somewhere else and it rings true.
@fkamiah17@ChrisMayLA6 The SNP have only themselves to blame, but By-electins often throw up results like that on low turnouts.
The UK media will no doubt paint it as the death of Scottish independence, but I don’t think we should read too much into it. I’m hoping that, at Holyrood or UK General Elections, voters will realise that Labour offer the same as the Tories.
@RabBrucesSpider1@ChrisMayLA6 Agreed. I think historically it was a safe Labour seat anyway, no? There's some rabid anti-SNP stuff on the BBC this morning, which won't surprise you a bit.
Starmer's already ballsing it up and he's got a whole year to go yet (potentially). And god knows what damage the Tories can do in that time. The clamour for independence across all three other countries is getting louder. Come election day, I think that will show.
@fkamiah17@ChrisMayLA6 Yes, the media reaction is just as I expected. That’s why I’m disappointed voters didn’t show more support for the SNP. However, this might be the kick up the arse the SNP need. They’ve shown very little leadership on the indy front for years now.
@RabBrucesSpider1@ChrisMayLA6
I don't know enough about Scottish politics to give a proper opinion about that, so I'll take your word for it.
It'll be interesting to see (if the data is produced/released) what effect the voter ID law had.
@fkamiah17@ChrisMayLA6 Voter ID issues won’t have been significant enough to have altered the result, but the fact that it happens at all is an affront to democracy. The SNP must do more work on this for future elections because demographic studies suggest that it is their core support who are most likely to be affected by the Tory disenfranchisement policy.
Disappointing results for SNP as it looks like many supporters stayed at home due to anger at Margaret Ferrier. However, not the massive victory being claimed for Labour as they actually got less votes than in 2019.
Yesterday 17845 compared with 18545 in 2019.
Tory vote fell by just under 7000 & Lib Dem by 1500. So probably many of these voted Labour to keep SNP out.
Ferrier was a fool - and I have no sympathy for her behaviour. HOWEVER Labout have persisted in lyibng that she has not been representing people or doing any work for her consituents since being suspended from the SNP - a la Delightful Dorries. This is incorrect, she maintained office and did a lot of constituency work, but it has been perpetuated by the BBC and most of the ‘Scottish' newspapers. Quelle suprisé.
@Wen@RabBrucesSpider1@fkamiah17@ChrisMayLA6 A pity she didn't resign with some dignity when she broke the Covid rules instead of forcing a recall petition. That was damaging for her reputation & the party. I think the press blew it out of all proportion after all we have Sunak a Tory PM who broke the rules & lied about it by denying he was at party.
@fkamiah17@ChrisMayLA6 Other issues seem to be many Tory voters switching to Labour in order to block SNP, plus reports of voters being turned away due to lack of ID. That’s down to the SNP not getting that message out since their voters tend to come from the less well off & are less likely to possess passports. SNP really should have done better on that front. Mostly, though, they need to get their act together & start looking competent again.
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