We can’t be far off people realizing how good robotic chef arms are and someone like Samsung making one that we start seeing in midsized kitchens, after this home adoption will be rapid and have huge benefits for diet and cost of living as well as being far more environmentally friendly than preprapared food.
It’ll probably use a trained Llama model (metas ai which is good at tasking) to translate requests and input data to a cooking model likely based on the one they always use for trackmania but I forget it’s name I think it’s Nvidias evolutionary one - it simulates the actions to evolve a solution before actuting motors - its impressively quick now even on a small processor and used in loads of stuff. The robotics is easy just a couple of continuous rotational servos and grasping mechanisms which are super common now.
I don’t know if any of the currently existing ones will get the market spot, I expect like with mp3 players It’ll come down to a big name making an easy to use but feature limited version to capture the market.
If anyone has questions happy to defend my assertion.
Yeah go on the YouTube rabbit hole of ‘cooking robot’ there are some really impressive ones - overpriced and not entirely practical but really good.
All the actual sensor and control stuff is used in industrial and factory kitchens but built into linear assembly lines so putting that into a more multiuse tool is the challenge.
I’m not personally familiar, just follow automation and robotics these are something I’ve been interested in for a while. It’s a prefect task for where automation and ai is at the moment.
I haven’t seen specifically cooking, but there have been quite a few papers about mixing task-instruction LLMs with task-execution robot arms (like they use in manufacturing) to perform simple tasks given only a plain English instruction. Eg, “pick up the red ball and place it in the blue bowl”. Very cool research but still very new.
How reliable are they, especially in edge cases? The word on the street has been that they’re still super dumb and we’re not automating blue-collar jobs like “chef” any time soon.
Factory robots are incredibly graceful now and sensor systems are great at combining information into models, I would say that they’re almost certainly able to act safely - they’re not going to stab anyone by mistake, but might occasionally call for help locating a carrot or odd things until those small bugs are ironed out.
I think fully multitasking robots are a way off because like self-drive there’s just so much complexity caused by small differences that accounting for it is endless, but an arm on a cooker with a prep area beside it would be restrained enough that solving the individual design issues would be manageable.
I should say I’m not imagining it to be as good as the advert, the first ones will have fairly basic ingredients and dishes they support - probably a few thousand but missing various key dishes that are a bit too awkward. I’m Also imagining it’ll cook better than me but not upto my mums best.
So I don’t think they’ll replace chef but we’re about to see a slew of task focused devices, probably in construction and similar fields. The chef focusing on the more creative and skilled elements while using them to chop, stir, make sauces or icing or whatever.
Oh, an arm on a cooker and prep area isn’t quite what I thought you were talking about. A human employee would still have to be around to feed it ingredients, clean it, and deliver the food, then, so that’s more like an increment on top of the slicing machines and automatic ovens fast food joints already have.
Well, there’s serious potential for the wars in Ukraine and Israel to spill over into their neighboring countries and spiral uncontrollably into WWIII.
So although far from guaranteed, it’s absolutely a possibility.
America has a real problem if something very bad happens to Biden or Trump during the elections (or shortly after).
The world has a problem when Trump is elected again. As he’s not known for keeping peace, or understanding international relations. In fact quite the opposite.
So the next big thing really is the elections.
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Notice though how certain massive events are barely registering here… Imagine a third of Americans threatened to lose their home… But that’s what’s currently happening in China through floods, and rain season still having to start. I would call that big, 120 million people isn’t nothing… In comparison, 7 million died from corona (out of 700 million confirmed cases)
So this very much depends on your perspective and where on the planet you live.
Looking at the U.S. political situation, fascism seems to be getting closer every day.
In fact, if you look at a lot of other western nations, fascist ideas are springing up all over.
If feels like the world is even more crazy than it used to be, and the current period of crazy started in 2016 with Brexit, then Trumps win snd presidency, rolling into covid, then Trump got ejected, Russia intencified the war in Ukraine, the Hamas shat the bed and now Israel is going batshit insane, oh and during the two last years, two social media sites have decided to just oblitirate most of their good content generators, X is just fucking over everything that was twitter, and Reddit is slowly imploding since the apicalypse.
I just had a look on Wikipedia, and damn there has been a LOT of shit going down since the start of 2016…
Difference is that my saying is based on a historically vested principle, simple as: one man, one vote. Instead of: your vote doesn’t count, only the oligarch’s does.
Via the popular vote, yes. But in the US, the popular vote doesn’t decide anything. Should it? That’s a different question. The point is they won the election legitimately.
We have work to do, but peddling election denial misinformation isn’t it.
They did win because of how the electoral college works. Both Trump and Bush lost the popular vote and won the election because the system is designed in a stupid way.
The election of Trump in 2016 was the culmination of many factors from the previous 50 years, all of which lead to a very predictable outcome.
Reaganomics loosening regulation on corporations, lowering taxes on the wealthy, and defunding public education
Rush Limbaugh and Fox news fostering rural nationalism
the advent of the internet which allowed those people to find each other and exchange their poorly informed ideas
the perception that politicians were prioritizing “them” over "real Americans"
9/11 and the resulting surveillance state and 24h sensationalist news cycle.
By the time Obama was in office, Republicans and Democrats lived in different realities. Republicans just wanted someone who was willing to stand on stage and spout their version of reality, and Trump is the right combination of insecure and stupid to want to do that. He was an inevitable symptom of a decades long problem.
Don’t forget Europe. Here, the far right is also racially motivated. My country’s (Portugal) far right party shot up in votes in the last election and has repeatedly villanized roma people. I hear the AfD is also pretty concerning.
Personal quantum computers would be truely useless. They break specific kinds of encryption, and simulate other quantum systems. Other than that, nobody’s been able to devise a way to make them do much practical work.
Really, it’s unfortunate they were named that, because they’re only like computers if you have a solid background in computing to understand the analogy. “Quantum emulator” or “programmable quantum system” might be a better word that wouldn’t make people think it’s the next semiconductor node. Alas, I have no time machine to fix it.
Bro, do you even know a Kronecker product from a discrete log? You’ll find a use my ass. And now you’re in with a super secret group of quantum computer users. Are you sending ninjas after me next?
In 1940 I would have agreed. Nobody had any idea they could be small, fast or convenient. Nobody had even bothered to build one outside of Germany, with ENIAC still a few years away, and synthetic semiconductors hadn’t been invented, so he was picturing thousands of tubes that would have to be changed out constantly. Five was actually a bold estimate, it’s like saying “only 5 space elevators” today.
Also, that’s not actually a response to what I said. It’s just another anecdote about someone being wrong once.
True, I thought the response could be inferred. What I meant to say is that you can’t make proper predictions with any degree of certainty about future developments with the scopes of current knowledge. Like superconductors for computers, someone could invent something equivalent to a quantum superconductor which would propel the advancement of quantum computers forward by decades.
Meeting that description would be a material with fractional-spin quasiparticals, and yeah, building a quantum computer would be easy with those. Otherwise, it seems likely we’ll get them in the 30’s, or maybe even late this decade.
That’s not the issue, though. There might well be no helpful algorithms that exist for the thing, outside of research applications like simulating quantum systems. It could only ever be the next big thing for certain scientists unless that fundamentally changes. You’re right, I can’t say for certain that it won’t, but it’s not a good guess.
Broken encryption might be the next big thing, but that’s actually a negative. In my response I put down post-quantum cryptography as a possibility, just based on how I interpret the question.
It’s still very much AI for a while. The current incarnation is still in relative infancy, and will only continue to get more capable and disruptive. We’re starting to see the integration with robotics, this is only going to become more significant with time.
It’s likely that the next big thing will be a consequence of AI.
The current AI boom is all based on a single paper from about 7 years ago, and has been achieved by just throwing more and more computing power at it. There has been basically no meaningful architecture improvements in that time and we are already seeing substantial fall off from throwing more power at the problem. I don't think its a given at all that we are close to the kind of disruption you are predicting.
I see AI as something that will go the way of VR or cryptocurrencies or self-driving cars, it won’t fully go away but people will realize that it is not suitable for nearly the number of use cases or improving as quickly as it was claimed it would and will sort of forget about it in most of the areas where it is not really improving anything.
AI is currently being used in both the wars OP mentioned.
Its primary use is always going to be in Surveillance Capitalism. The idea we can get nice things from it is mainly a consolation prize.
I mean yes I can now get AI to draw me a picture or write me an editorial. But meanwhile the IDF can get AI to choose people to kill and use the Wheres Daddy AI program to tell them when someone is at home so they can deliberately bomb him with his family.
So yeah it isn't much for consumers but it's not going away for use on us.
I think those use cases show how particularly bad AI really is considering how many wrong targets they have been bombing and how many bad recommendations consumers still get.
I'm not saying AI can't be disruptive. I'm saying we aren't there. The steady progress you think you are seeing is bought with increased processing power, the science isn't advancing steadily, it advances in unpredictable jumps. Because the performance gained with processing power is reaching its peak, we'll need at least another one of those unpredictable jumps for it to get to a state that will do what the comment I was responding to was claiming. It could be another 50 years before that happens, or it could be tomorrow.
I don’t understand this deliberately pessimistic perspective I keep seeing around AI development that stubbornly ignores every other technological development in history. Even just considering the singular transformer architecture, we’re still seeing significant and novel improvement. In just a couple years we’ve watched the technology go from basic predictive text to high quality image and even video generation, now to real time robotics control.
The transformer architecture is incredibly powerful and flexible. The notion that the basic technology staying the same is an indication of stagnation is as ridiculous as if you said the same of transistors half a century ago. Most of the improvement we see in the near future will be through recursive and multi-modal applications, meta-architechtural developments that don’t require the core technology to change at all.
Addressing many common diseases such as cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, arthritis, PCOS, depression, anxiety, and ADHD. All of these are metabolic diseases that were rare in human populations around the world just 50 years ago.
Contrary to what the US’s department of agriculture says (that we should eat mostly plants via the Food Pyramid/MyPlate) starting in the late '70s, it turns out that the human species has evolved over >2 million years to hunt animals. Of the three macronutrients (carbohydrates, proteins, and fats), we should be getting most of our calories from fats via fatty meats.
The growing popularity and success of ketogenic diets (especially the carnivore diet) in reversing many metabolic diseases once thought to be incurable and attributed to age is a sign that humans have finally rediscovered our species-appropriate diet.
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