DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

Analysis: recent poll on voter intentions

About half of all voters would replace both candidates on the ballot.

62% of Biden-supporting voters would replace Biden.

Voters have little confidence in either Trump or Biden, including re fitness for office, personal ethics & respect for democratic values.

Pew research shows 49% of registered voters favor Trump, while 48% support Biden.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/24/in-tight-presidential-race-voters-are-broadly-critical-of-both-biden-and-trump/?utm_source=Pew+Research+Center&utm_campaign=0c78f7e640-Weekly_4-27-24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-0c78f7e640-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D

..

TomSwirly,
@TomSwirly@toot.community avatar

@DrALJONES The D/RNC have completely blocked any other choice. Perhaps the Hand of Fate might sweep one or both of these pieces off the board.

> 49% of registered voters favor Trump, while 48% support Biden

I fail to understand why even one human who isn't Trump would support this man.

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@TomSwirly

Re "I fail to understand why even one human... would support this man."

Meaning why would anyone support Biden? I guess you know the answer -- Trump's fascism will be instant.

At any rate, nearly 2 in every 3 Americans wish the DNC had come up with someone more likely than Biden to beat Trump...

🤷🏻‍♂️

TomSwirly,
@TomSwirly@toot.community avatar

@DrALJONES NO!! Not Biden, but Trump! 😲

I mean, as a socialist and a pacifist I am very, very much not a fan of Biden, but compared with Trump?!

Trump comes off as an unhinged rambling psychopathic narcissist!.If you saw him on the street, you'd expect him to come after you with a knife, smelling of human waste.

The States will not survive United if Trump wins. Yes, one tiny irrational accelerationist part of my mind say, "Those belligerent Yankee fsckers deserve it," but I repudiate it.

TomSwirly,
@TomSwirly@toot.community avatar

@DrALJONES Man, somehow I managed to enrage someone with this post by not being extreme enough!, they wrote a long screed and then deleted it.

To make it clear, Biden is against most of what I stand for, but isn't a deranged maniacal psychopath who hates even more of the things I care about.

If I could press a button and remove them both, I'd do it now!! Heck, if I got to keep that button indefinitely, things would be very different for the evil old USA.

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@TomSwirly

Well, now that you've clarified Trump 😁 this is why magas vote for him:

They're looking for a saviour & they've got no power of discrimination:

https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/sociopaths-and-why-we-elect-them,15201

DEDGirl,
@DEDGirl@mastodon.world avatar

@DrALJONES during the 2016 election I watched Sanders polling higher than Biden & level with Clinton, then the MSM stopped showing him in the polls entirely. I had been raised against the corruption of politics, and watching the blatant manipulation & interference reinforced that upbringing. I will never trust a poll. With Russia & China playing games here, who would?

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@DEDGirl

Re "I will never trust a poll"

Your comment seems to underline msm corruption, not the validity of esteemed research bodies such as Pew that are the least liable to corruption.

For all Russia & China's foreign evil, who corrupts better than American plutocrats?

The capacity to discriminate is what matters.

Black-white approaches only exacerbate problems.

Always look at the context - why wouldn't those numbers match the clear reality on the ground?

DEDGirl,
@DEDGirl@mastodon.world avatar

@DrALJONES All true. I agree. If it were another topic. I still don’t trust political polls. Even from Pew. Mostly because I don’t trust politics, or what people say to pollsters about their own. 🤷‍♀️ Like this poll is nonsense to me. And, I mentioned Russia & Chinese interference, because they are in abundant addition to our own.

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@DEDGirl

So I guess you're saying you think the poll numbers are radically different from the reality on the ground?

Idk if that's true, but my point about context is that it helps to weigh up whether info is likely true.

I see a great deal of anger toward Biden's partnership in genocide.

Context helps to answer the question: how do I know if the numbers are "reasonable" in the circumstance?

Invaluable check.

DEDGirl,
@DEDGirl@mastodon.world avatar

@DrALJONES No. That’s not it at all. I don’t think hypothetical polls give realistic feedback. I always think in context, unless I’m not given the context. Yeah, Biden sucks. We all know many people wanted a different option. Trump sucks way more. We all know many people wanted a different option. Trying to determine how many people exactly, when it’s irrelevant makes this poll nonsense to me.

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@DEDGirl

Re "Trying to determine how many people exactly, when it’s irrelevant makes this poll nonsense to me"

Well, "exactly" is never the point in a poll. You must know that.

I guess you're just saying you don't think polls are useful. Fair enough.

I think they're useful insofar as we understand 1. their function is to indicate possibilities, & 2. that we always question them.

Tools are tools.

DEDGirl,
@DEDGirl@mastodon.world avatar

@DrALJONES 🤔Ummm, this poll’s possibilities are from the past & relate to something that cannot be changed. So, no. This poll isn’t useful. Nor is it indicating possibilities.

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@DEDGirl

Yes, so we disagree on this, then. 🙂

DEDGirl,
@DEDGirl@mastodon.world avatar

@DrALJONES what possibilities is this poll showing you?

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@DEDGirl

Re "what possibilities is this poll showing you?"

Re any given poll, after checking the reputation of the source, I then ask, "What is the likelihood of those numbers matching the reality on the ground?"

Knowing how the US public is reacting to Biden (coverage is everywhere), imo, the likelihood is relatively high. That's the "possibility" I see. I think that's important.

Also, I don't understand what you mean by "this poll's possibilities are from the past".

DEDGirl,
@DEDGirl@mastodon.world avatar

@DrALJONES I say it’s from the past because there is no way these candidates are being replaced. It’s done. Asking about replacing them is asking about something from the past. There is ZERO possibility of either being replaced. People answering are answering fantasy proposals. I’m not saying it’s nonsense for people who like polls to ponder whimsically. Have at it. That’s why my OG comment was off the cuff about polls in general. I didn’t take it as a serious poll

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@DEDGirl

Re "say it’s from the past because there is no way these candidates are being replaced. It’s done."

Sorry, imo, that's akin to saying it's pointless to write books or, likewise, contribute any info that enhances our understanding & helps us learn from history & from our current errors.

I don't have anything else to add.

DEDGirl,
@DEDGirl@mastodon.world avatar

@DrALJONES It’s not an accurate picture of any election outlook because it’s asking people’s wishful thinking of a step in the process that has been completed. It’s cool if you like seeing what people would have liked to have happened, after the fact. 🤷‍♀️

DEDGirl,
@DEDGirl@mastodon.world avatar

@DrALJONES I just said I don’t trust political polls. I love data. 🤷‍♀️

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@DEDGirl

Ffs 😁😁😁 polls ARE a type of data. ALL types of data have to be evaluated.

Don't tell me any more -- I've already lost most of my hair 😁😁😁

DEDGirl,
@DEDGirl@mastodon.world avatar

@DrALJONES Um, 👀 Not all polls, or data are true or trustworthy. I’m not a researcher. Why do I have to evaluate data that I find fanciful & not useful? Ffs, why are you so troubled that I don’t think THIS poll is useful. It’s okay for people to not like something. I don’t trust politics polls. Who cares?

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@DEDGirl

The only reason I responded to your initial comments is because I care about reasoning & its power to help us understand stuff.
I gradually realised I couldn't make myself clear. No, it's not "troubling". 🙂

hakona,
@hakona@im.alstadheim.no avatar

@DrALJONES 71% of Trump supporters would rather not be running against Biden.

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@hakona

I can't immediately see the significance of that. ?

hakona,
@hakona@im.alstadheim.no avatar

@DrALJONES Democrats may not love Biden, but MAGA seem to fear him?

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@hakona

Can we read that into the poll result? Couldn't there be several plausible reasons?

hakona,
@hakona@im.alstadheim.no avatar

@DrALJONES Yes, but that is /one/ possible contributor.

DrALJONES,
@DrALJONES@mastodon.social avatar

@hakona

Sure.

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