kgw,
@kgw@cosocial.ca avatar

'A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?
David Smith in Washington

The professor on his famous 13 ‘keys’ to the White House, a method for predicting election results that’s been right nine times out of 10

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election

mpjgregoire,
@mpjgregoire@cosocial.ca avatar

@kgw The greatest risk I see for the Biden campaign is that at some point, with the eyes of the nation upon him, he may stumble in a way that is interpreted as a sign of senility: mixing up the names of two countries, let's say. It doesn't even matter if it's the sort of thing that could happen to anyone and if his mind is as clear and strong as ever — many Americans are already worried about President Biden's mental acuity, and such a stumble would strengthen those worries.

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