This looks like what they call a bifurcation point in complexity theory, the point at which a small change in the parameters of the system leads to a big qualitative change. The environment has been absorbing heat and greenhouse gases but staying relatively stable. But this year, it feels like things have suddenly shifted to a new scary equilibrium.
Since we all love capitalism, I wonder if GHG and warming work like compounding in business.
A little bit might not seem like much at first, but the old chess board and rice story.
At a consistent 5% more GHG, say we get 5% more bad things in a year. Say GHG and bad things are both 100.
Year 1 is +5 = 105
Year 2 is +5.25. = 110.25
Year 3 is +5.5125 = 115.7625
…
Year 30 is +20.58 = 432.19
If you just added 5 per year for 30 years you just get 250. With compounding it is almost twice as bad at a mere 5% annual compounding. If you go with, monthly, daily, or continuous (e^x) compounding, it is even worse.
Speaking of capitalism, understanding compounding is they key to wealth. Once a person gets on the good side of it (assets vs debt) they just get richer. If you keep accumulating debt, you get poorer and poorer. Wealth inequality without government intervention is just math. Hard work, super intelligence, etc aren’t as big of factors as luck and environment to have those traits or the biggest, the starting factor. Consider the prior example and run the number with a 200 starting point.
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