I think the fediverse should replace popular socmedia, but it will never be able to compete financially.
We've already got Bluesky, which is the same thing but controlled (and sponsored) by the usual suspects, poised to snap up any users that bail from twitter. And popular opinion favours Bluesky thanks to the positive coverage it gets compared to fediverse projects.
The fediverse in the form it's in now will never replace twitter while the free market controls the distribution of users. They'll always go to the places controlled by big money.